Brij Bhardwaj
Mood of the nation will be tested in two months when elections for State Assemblies takes place in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Both States are important as BJP had lost when elections were held in Madhya Pradesh last time and it came to power after members of Congress party defected and helped BJP to capture power. Karnataka is also important because it is the only State in South where BJP has substantial following.
Madhya Pradesh will give indication of mood in Hindi belt where lotus bloomed in early days. In Madhya Pradesh BJP has to decide what to do with present Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. BJP has been in power in Madhya Pradesh since 2003 and Mr Chouhan who led BJP to comfortable win in 2008 and 2013, failed to get majority in 2018 and BJP could capture power only when members from Congress defected and joined BJP.
It is felt that fatigue factor has set in against present Chief Minister and BJP in the State due to long presence in power. There is no plan to change Chief Minister at this stage but many steps are being taken to re-brand him. Many schemes have been launched, including grant of Rs. 1,000 per month to women not paying income tax. It is also taking steps to consolidate its appeal to Hindu voters by undertaking construction of temple in memory of Sant Ravidas. A crucial factor in Madhya Pradesh is vote by tribal’s’ and Schedule Caste who can tilt balance in any direction.
Many voices were raised against Mr Chouhan being made Chief Minister again in 2018 as it was felt that anyone under whose leadership party has lost election should not be given another chance. Mr Chouhan is now following U.P model of Yogi Adityanath by using bulldozers to demolish properties of those found guilty of pelting stones at religious processions. He has also taken several steps for welfare of tribals who are crucial in the State.
In Karnataka, BJP has changed Chief Ministers’ and former strongman S.Yedurappa has announced his retirement from politics and has stated that he would not be contesting for a seat in state Assembly. Yedurappa who is credited with having built BJP brick by brick has been a member of State Assembly for many terms. Thanks to him the lingayat community has been a firm supporter of BJP, giving them an edge in elections to Assembly as well as Lok Sabha poll. Will Lingayats stay with BJP in coming poll will make a difference to the outcome.
Another issue troubling BJP is charge of corruption. BJP is fighting incumbency by raising issues like love jihad, and hijab. They have also announced support for common civil code and are trying to consolidate majority community vote .It may be mentioned that battle in Karnataka will be a three cornered one which gives advantage to BJP as Opposition vote will be divided. In last Assembly elections BJP had emerged as single largest party. The coalition Government installed by Congress with help of Janata Party did not last long as many members belonging to Congress and Janata Dal defected and lent support to BJP. Indications are that in coming poll no party may get simple majority but BJP will emerge as single largest party and will get the first call to form a Government.
This will give them an opportunity to win over any independents as well as win over members belonging to Congress or Janata Dal. There is also talk of Janata Dal entering into alliance with BJP instead of Congress as they did last time .In any case all pollsters have predicted a keen contest. BJP will do everything to retain their hold on a State in South where they have large following. They will also take advantage of division in Congress ranks where former Chief Minister and party chief have never reconciled and want to be Chief Minister if Congress wins.
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