By Sushil Kutty
Nothing odd, but reports speak of unrest in the ranks of the Shinde Shiv Sena. The Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray Sena looks the better bet. Amidst this, the crowning of Narendra Damodardas Modi as the leader of the NDA parliamentary party. Were the Shinde Sena MPs present in the Central Hall of the Old Parliament when Prime Minister-elect Narendra Modi held forth on what the prospects of an NDA government at the Centre holds for the states?
Reports speak of the BJP central leadership sending feelers to Uddhav Thackeray. The Sena UBT continues to stand with the INDIA bloc, but there is no telling what awaits the INDI-Alliance and parties like UBT Shiv Sena in the third term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The 2024 election result gave Modi the chance to establish himself as a coalition leader and this isn’t lost on the regional parties which are part of the Modi coalition.
Both Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar have sworn allegiance to the NDA government and are aware that the Modi name brought both TDP and Janata Dal-U votes. The message that has gone out is that Prime Minister Narendra has effortlessly slipped into the role of the NDA coalition head with a message to all regional parties: The Modi-led NDA government will run its five-year course and Modi has vowed all NDA components in the coalition will be treated equally.
What does that tell Uddhav Thackeray? It tells Uddhav Thackeray that joining the NDA government brings with it advantages. The UBT Shiv Sena has been out of the reckoning for two and a half years and the MVA will have to win the Assembly to get back into reckoning. Meanwhile, newly elected UBT Shiv Sena MPs will be fair game for poaching. Isn’t Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray tired of losing MPs to poaching? Clearly, at this juncture, TDP President Chandrababu Naidu and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar seem to be savvier than Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray.
Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar have sworn allegiance to Prime Minister Narendra Modi knowing that the NDA government at the Centre will run its course of five years. Also, the TDP and the Janata Dal-U will have fabulous representation in the Modi cabinet. The churning in national and Maharashtra politics is pregnant with tantalizing possibilities. The BJP’s ‘Mission 45’ for Maharashtra didn’t happen, but Modi wants to undo the damage done.
The BJP in Maharashtra slid to 10 seats. The BJP’s alliance with the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP did not seem to work. The BJP’s vote share in Maharashtra dipped from 27.84 percent to 26.45 percent and this translated to a loss of ten seats. The UBT Shiv Sena can, if it wants, exploit the fluid situation to its benefit. What happens after the Assembly polls and the Local Bodies’ polls, slated for the end of this year, will be crucial.
The BJP has been single-largest party in the Maharashtra assembly for 10 years. Will the party maintain its rank after the Assembly elections? The first indication of the churning came with the resignation of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis who took responsibility for the party’s Lok Sabha losses. The BJP is wary of the “Lok Sabha trend” continuing into the upcoming Assembly and Local Bodies’ polls.
The BJP appears ready to make a climb-down and accommodate the aspirations of parties like the UBT Shiv Sena. The split in Balasaheb Thackeray’s Shiv Sena did not finish off the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction. Meanwhile, the BJP is beset with problems. The party’s OBC voter base is slipping away. The Mahayuti government’s decision favouring Marathas in the quota battle also did not go down well. There are also the unhappy farmers queering the pitch.
BJP’s Maharashtra performance is partly responsible for Modi losing his majority in the Lok Sabha. Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected a sweep in Maharashtra. But the BJP underperformed in Vidarbha, and in western Maharashtra. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde should take the blame. Post-polls and post-results, the Shinde Shiv Sena is the worst hit. Shinde batted for Maratha quota and Devendra Fadnavis is getting flak.
The BJP is trying it best convince its rank and file that splits engineered by the BJP in Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party were not to blame for the party’s poor showing in the Lok Sabha polls. Also, the state BJP leadership wanted to change a few of the sitting MPs but Modi and Shah wouldn’t listen. This is the same story as in Uttar Pradesh, where Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath wanted a big chunk of sitting MPs dropped but Modi’s favourite Amit Shah wouldn’t listen to reason.
The BJP’s poor performance in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra reduced Modi to coalition Prime Minister. Devendra Fadnavis and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath are being blamed for the mistakes of the “two Gujjus”, who will continue to call the shots in the NDA government at the Centre. The thought foremost in the mind is what might happen to Yogi Adityanath? Modi and Shah are looking for closure.
In fact, everybody is looking for closure including Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, and Devendra Fadnavis. Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar. What will happen in Maharashtra will be closely linked to the upcoming Assembly and Local Bodies’ elections and to whatever Prime Minister Narendra Modi does with his NDA Government in the next few weeks and months. (IPA