Anoop Khajuria
Our tinderbox planet is blazing, blistering, burning, sizzling, scorching, and boiling – all the incendiary adjectives converge in one sentence on the face of the present escalating heat conditions. Every day leads to a panfry platter.
This May has been the warmest May ever. The heat remains unabated in June too. Delhi has recorded temperatures crossing 50 degree C. Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and parts of Himachal Pradesh have also been reeling under the intense heatwave conditions. The last 12 months sent mercury rising precariously to the mystique of 1.5 degree C above pre-industrial levels. This pre-industrial level flashback goes to the years between 1850 and 1900. This temperature range of the Globe existed when the Industrial Revolution began and fossil fuels were used for energy generation to run the industries.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its June 2024 report has said that from 2024 to 2028, there are chances that the average global temperature may crisscross 1.5 degree C, popping up often above the pre-industrial levels. Now, what does this mean to the biodiversity and life on our planet? The reports of the IPCC have already predicted it.
Let us take a look at the area comprising parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, and Haryana which is primarily agricultural land producing crops during Rabi and Kharif seasons. The intense heat wave results in desiccating the grains to shrink. This is a major loss to farmers. The data available on the IMD website says that the number of days with temperature rising more than 40 degree C has been recorded to exceed three hundred days in a decade bracket beginning from 1970 to 2019. The phenomenon has unleashed an adverse impact on the crop system. The states of Haryana & Punjab have flagged a projected decline in the yield of major crops such as wheat and maize in the future. The situation can worsen with the ever-depleting tree covers, unpredictable rain patterns, micro-climatic zones, and ever-increasing extreme temperatures.
Indian Meteorological Department and Copernicus Climate Change services (C3S) is doing a commendable job by providing authoritative information about past, present and future climate on the globe.
Climate change can hit the country’s agriculture-driven economy with a decline in crop maturing duration and thereby lead to a reduction in grain yields. The farm pests are increasing. Groundwater resources are depleting at an all-time high with soaring mercury at an unprecedented rate.
The agriculture industry is a state subject and many states, sensing the alarming data have come out with their own State Action Plans on Climate Change. But many states are still lagging behind. Though the National Action Plan on Climate Change was launched way back in 2008 by a council of ministers under the Prime Minister, yet tailwinds to the 8 National missions including the National Solar Mission propelled only after the assumption of power by the NDA Government in 2014. To take things further, the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture and the National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change along with the other sub-missions included in the National mission complement each other. Regional data is available on the factors responsible for Climate Change in an agro-climatic zone must be analyzed by state councils on science and technology and Agricultural Universities to bring out robust State Action Plans to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on crop systems.
Punjab has come out with the State Action Plan prepared by the Punjab State Council for Science and Technology which underlines the changes in the temperature that bear implications for crop physiological processes and activities of the pests and diseases that may adversely affect crops.
Climate Change studies have revealed the major losses to the crops due to different emission scenarios. Based on the studies conducted at the Punjab State Council for Science and Technology, the decline in wheat yield is 29.6% – 46.4% and the maize yield has gone down by 34.6% – 77.8% both in mid-century and end century while the decline in rice production is projected at 13.3% at the end century.
It is in these prevailing climatic conditions that crop rotations and their adaptations to climatic changes have become absolutely imperative to beat the paradox between agriculture and climate change. The present agriculture, forestry, and other land use contribute over a fifth of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions exacerbating natural disasters and at the same time, the estimated crop losses by UNFCC globally have crossed $108 billion between 2008 and 2019. With the ever-changing dynamics of weather worldwide, and the absence of unconventional thinking and an innovative mindset, the cycle of perpetrating emissions & becoming victims will continue for the agriculture sector. While this sector contributes 25% of total GHG emissions, yet it remains most vulnerable to the natural disasters occurring as a result of global warmimg.
In India, the farmer’s holdings of land are becoming smaller and smaller which are highly vulnerable to climate change. Couple this situation with the food supply demand projected to increase by 60% above the present data by 2040, the world of agriculture cannot be left behind.
Therefore, it is a wake-up call for the policymakers to prioritize a new equilibrium. It would require shifting the focus from conventional farming practices to climate-proof ones and making it a profitable enterprise with embedded financing models, use of carbon credits, and climate financing for innovation and adoption.
(The author is a member of Asia – Pacific group of Journalists & Broadcasters working on climate change and disaster risk reduction)
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