By Shivaji Sarkar
The economy is showing signs of slowdown, stock markets in a bad shape, the common man in distress because of unemployment and inflation, and yet the corporates are earning high profits.India’s officially lowered GDP growth projection may be underestimating the true extent of the economic slowdown. A volatile stock market and sluggish industrial activity add to concerns.
The NIFTY50’s hit its lowest level on March 11 since November 2020, making it the worst performer in a year. The latest financial shock comes from IndusInd Bank, whose shares plunged 27percent, erasing Rs 19000 crore in market value after disclosing Rs 2,300 crore in derivatives accounting discrepancies, which reduced its net worth by 2.4 percent. Since October 2024, India has lost nearly Rs 1 lakh crore due to capital flight. The banking sector is facing increasing credit risks, with rising defaults on loans, mortgages, credit cards, and fixed-income securities.
At the same time, structural issues continue to cloud economic assessments. Academics and institutional experts have pointed out flaws in official GDP estimates, with the IMF recommending an overhaul of real-sector statistics. India’s GDP figures, once considered reliable, are now under scrutiny due to limited data availability, opaque methodologies, and inconsistencies with independent indicators.
Unlike economies dominated by manufacturing, India’s service-driven economic structure presents additional statistical challenges. In industrial sectors, output is tangible and pricing is straightforward, making valuations easier. However, measuring service sector output is complex, leading to concerns about data accuracy. For instance, claims of unemployment falling to 3 percent have been met with scepticism.
The agriculture sector, a key driver of rural employment, is also showing signs of slowing growth. The gross value added (GVA) in agriculture and allied sectors grew just 1.2 percent year-on-year in Q2 FY24, a sharp drop from 2.5 percent a year ago.
India’s economic growth is projected at 6.4 percent for FY 2024-25—the slowest pace in four years from 8.2percent in 2023-24. Key factors behind this slowdown include a struggling manufacturing sector, sluggish corporate investments, and weak wage growth, which is limiting discretionary spending. High inflation and uneven income distribution are straining household budgets.
To stabilise the economy, India must rethink its revenue strategy. While raising taxes is politically unviable, alternative measures are needed to boost income and spending. The nominal GDP growth rate, which includes real GDP growth and inflation, is estimated at 9.7percent in 2024-25—lower than the 10.5percent projected in the last Union Budget. High inflation has driven corporate profits to an average of 22 percent, yet in real terms, it is slowing overall economic activity.
While businesses have seen soaring earnings, they are hesitant to reinvest due to market uncertainties and the fear of predatory competition from domestic rivals. A recent Blackwall move targeting Indian corporates could further destabilise market confidence. The concerns need to be addressed to build market trust.
The IMF expects India’s GDP growth to moderate to 6.5percent in 2025, citing a sharper-than-expected decline in industrial activity. Public debt remains a pressing issue. Government debt has surged from Rs 49 lakh crore in 2014 to Rs 205 lakh crore in 2024 (Rs 255 lakh crore including state debt). The central government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 57.1 percent in 2024-25, while total public debt accounts for 33percent of GDP. India’s external debt stands at $711.8 billion, or 19.4percent of GDP. The IMF estimates that India’s debt-to-GDP ratio will peak at 82.3percent in FY25 before declining to 80.5percent by FY29.
Despite the economic slowdown, India’s corporate sector is witnessing record earnings. According to the Economic Survey 2024-25, the profit-to-GDP ratio for NIFTY 500 companies surged from 2.1percent in FY23 to 4.8percent in FY24, the highest level since 2007-08. However, corporate profits are not translating into overall economic growth.
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran has pointed out that companies are inflating consumer prices while keeping wages low, making them primary contributors to inflation rather than responding to real demand. The question arises: Is government debt fuelling private profits? In other words, taxpayer money is indirectly supporting corporate earnings, even as the broader economy experiences one of its steepest slowdowns.
Corporate profits can rise even with weak consumer demand if companies increase prices faster than production costs. This “pricing power” often comes from market dominance, supply chain constraints, or strong brand perception. The construction sector, for example, is estimated to grow at 8-10percent in FY25, benefiting from public infrastructure spending. In FY24, it grew by 12-15 percent, fuelled by government-backed projects.
The real estate sector is also experiencing strong growth. Housing sales reached an 11-year high in the January-June 2024 period, with 1.73 lakh units sold, according to Knight Frank. Profit margins in the sector range from 15-25 percent. The RBI’s rate cuts have fuelled the boom even as individual savers see reduced returns on deposits.
Toll charges on highways have also increased, raising transport costs and contributing to inflation.Paradoxically, India’s manufacturing sector is slowing despite rising corporate profits. The official explanation points to global competition, but domestic challenges, including high input costs and regulatory hurdles, also play a role. Business groups with close political ties enjoy advantages often at the expense of fair market competition.
This proximity between businesses and political power raises concerns. While select companies benefit, the broader economy suffers and lowers India’s living standards. Despite being a $3 trillion economy, India’s per capita income remains well below that of Russia, which has a smaller $2 trillion economy.
India has the potential to rebound if economic policies prioritise free-market dynamics over political influence. The IMF remains optimistic about India’s long-term economic trajectory, viewing the slowdown as a natural correction after the post-pandemic surge. It must address structural issues, from weak wage growth to unsustainable public debt.
The challenge lies in balancing fiscal discipline with policies that encourage investment and job creation. Without strategic intervention, India risks prolonged economic stagnation, where corporate profitability continues to rise but economic growth remains sluggish.
ndian economy is at crossroads. While corporate profits soar, economic fundamentals are weakening. High public debt, rising inflation, and sluggish manufacturing growth present serious challenges. These require policy reforms that foster investment, transparency, and inclusive growth. If India can navigate these hurdles, a sustainable recovery remains within reach. But will the right steps be taken?—INFA
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