By Ashis Biswas
KOLKATA: Foreign policy hawks who gleefully remind the world how the mightiest country in the world, the US considers fast progressing India as its strategic defence partner in the Indo-pacific region, may face an acid test soon. Belying their rhetoric, the apparent Washington-Delhi bonhomie was not potent enough to halt the US-led West from toppling the ruling India-friendly regime in Bangladesh, to give a recent example.
More worryingly, there are also indications that a fresh wave of destabilisation may soon engulf Manipur, Nagaland and adjacent areas within India’s own Northeast region, never mind the ruling Modi 3.0 Government’s soaring ambitions to develop it as an economic powerhouse. Internationally backed forces have renewed their old demand for an independent Christian state, carving out territory out of India, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Mrs Sheikh Hasina sounded the first alarm, although US diplomats contradicted her somewhat later.
Unless India and other concerned governments in South Asia exercise utmost caution in their policy formulation for the region, they may find itself embroiled in myriad Myanmar-type armed civil conflicts in the medium term. The disturbing trend of rising big power rivalry is a further complicating factor.
With the world’s attention focused on the recent outbreak of massive violence in Bangladesh, resulting from a West -sponsored regime change that saw Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ousted from power, few analysts paid much attention to her serious warning about US political games. She had alleged that the US, even while publicly assailing her for having suppressed democracy and the opposition in Bangladesh, had sought to take over the St Martin island, seeking to set up a military base there.
US diplomats had hinted that if Dhaka agreed, then the US would not even take much interest in the National elections that were held in January this year. Apparently, it did not matter to Washington whether the Awami League or its opponents ruled in Bangladesh, so long as major American strategic interests were served.
Sheikh Hasina refused, fearing the consequences of the US setting up a military foothold in an already tense region where big power rivalry had been a fact of life. An agreement with the US would have instantly antagonised China, India and Russia, three powerful countries in her immediate neighbourhood that had helped Bangladesh consistently over the years in the economic and other spheres.
Bangladesh general elections duly followed earlier this year. The Awami league of course, swept the poll due to the boycott by the opposition parties, but as feared the US-led West did not accept the outcome. As the saying goes, PM Hasina’s goose was finally cooked by the mighty Western bloc of nations, Through an orgy of carefully orchestrated violence, its features not unlike what had been earlier seen during the Ukraine anti Government agitation of 2014-15, she was driven into political exile while a crackdown was declared on her party and thousands of its supporters!
Future analysts/historians, whatever may be their final assessment of Nobel laureate economist Mohammad Yunus, must thank him for making a categorical admission in the US following Hasina’s ouster: In presence of ex President Bill Clinton, US officials and NGO operatives, Yunus proudly introduced one Bengali activists, a known fundamentalist, as the brain behind ‘ the most meticulously organised'(his exact words) campaign, at a celebratory function.
In other words, the new political winners in Bangladesh had not been put in power by a spontaneous wave of self sacrificing volunteers, students. or the struggling masses of common people, as initially claimed by the BNP-led opposition parties or others. It was common knowledge among political circles in India as well as Bangladesh that Hasina’s equation with the Clintons had always been uneasy, even downright hostile, at times. The powerful pro-Clinton lobby had always maintained close links with the opposition BNP leaders and groups hostile to Hasina.
The final ouster of Hasina was an icing on the cake which they savoured delightfully, as Yunus, their designated choice as the future leader of Bangladesh, did not fail them. The script for Bangladesh rekindled memories for the similarly successful American attack against the Libyan leader Muammar Gadafi, who had to pay for his life for having opposed the US, following a spell of organised violence.
What had occurred in Bangladesh was that a duly elected Government led by the Awami League or AL had been sabotaged by a West sponsored political intervention involving massive violence, and much loss of human lives and property. It was a successful regime change operation, as seen before in Ukraine and Libya.
It does not need any major political expertise to conclude that GOI needs to ponder seriously — if necessary revisit — its rules of political engagement with the Western bloc in view of the situation evolving in the East. Delhi must not accept at face value claims made from US and EU capitals that the AL was not observing rules of democratic government, was corrupt and anti-people. The argument that Washington/London etc only intervened to ensure fair elections and revive fair governance would not wash either.
What had happened to Ukraine and Libya after the West sponsored interventions? Rampant corruption had been reported from Ukraine where the right wing Nazi forces, always strong in Ukraine, had staged a comeback. Further a systematic West- encouraged anti Russian campaign was launched even in area like Donbass and Lugansk where the population was largely pro-Russian. There were attacks against their language, church, cultural institutions, and assaults on their fundamental rights. Repeated Russian protests did not work.
Unfortunately for Ukraine or its hothead NATO backers, President Putin whatever his other problems may be showed that he was no pushover like Boris Yeltsin in his dealings with the West. When he gave serious warnings, he had the courage to follow up on his words. The contrast with hyper aggressive NATO generals who warned Russia of dire consequences without really giving the Ukraine army the all-out support it needed, was telling.
As for Libya, its earnings from its rich energy resources has been reduced to about 25% of is formal levels. The country is now a failed state, not unlike Ukraine, with three or four major armed groups/militias looting its resources, with the West backing one group, Russians another. There have been no signs whether in Ukraine or in Libya of any western type democratic functioning , the holding of , fair elections or of responsible governance, or any visible improvement in the countries’ political functioning or in the living standards!
Modi Government must ponder whether a similar political outcome may not come to haunt Bangladesh and its polity in the medium term? It is a country with a large population with very limited natural resources flanked by a volatile country like Myanmar and on three sides it has a border with India, which it cannot really afford to antagonise.
Is it a surprise that already calls for a separation from Bangladesh have been heard from sections of tribals and others, long oppressed by Muslim police and army in the Chittagong hill tracts and adjacent areas ?
Further there has been an open call from Mizoram Christian Chief Minister Laldohoma, proposing an independent Christian new state to be carved out of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar especially for the largely Christian Kuki/Zo population . He even outlined his proposal during a recent visit to the US where he delivered speeches at select gatherings.
A large country like India should not feel unduly rattled by such developments. However, whether certain lobbies in the US would support such moves in the future remains to be seen.
Given the long record of persistent Western meddling in post 1947 Naga politics , Western agencies support to rebels in north eastern region , not to mention the U.S. move to secure the St Martin’s island in Bangladesh,, GOI should remain .ever vigilant and be not caught napping in the NE or in its immediate neighbourhood . New Deli has every reasons to be concerned at the development in North East and Bangladesh where the foreign agencies are playing a major role. (IPA Service)
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