Harsha Kakar
Since the overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina regime by violent student led protests and the installation of the Yunus interim government, the Bangladesh economy is moving downhill as also violence against minorities is testing its relationships with India. Despite the Indian foreign secretary meeting his Bangladeshi counterpart, Touhid Hussain, as also the head of the interim government, Mohamad Yunus, the country appears to be gravitating away from India moving closer to Pakistan.
For the first time in over five decades, Vijay Diwas, marking victory over Pakistan and liberation of Bangladesh, was celebrated in Kolkata with token participation of Bangladeshi Mukti Yoddhas. The interim Bangladesh government also cancelled holidays linked to its founder Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, including his birth and death anniversaries.
Nahid Islam, the ‘student coordinator’ and adviser to the interim government, said in a statement that the interim government does not recognise Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as the Father of the Nation. This was expected as violence against the Sheikh Hasina regime commenced against reservations for families of freedom fighters of the 1971 war.
Many in Bangladesh consider Jinnah as the individual responsible for the emergence of the country and not Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. For the first time since 1971, Bangladesh observed the death anniversary of Jinnah in Sept this year. Most of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman’s statues have been destroyed. Displaying a change in approach towards Pakistan, the Yunus government has cancelled the need for Pakistani citizens visiting Bangladesh from obtaining security clearance prior to applying for a visa.
Mohamad Yunus also met the Pak PM, Shehbaz Sharif, in New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. In the presence of Shehbaz Sharif, Yunus requested India to revive SAARC. This was evidently intended to please Pakistan, which has thus far given up on SAARC as a bad joke.
The two nations have resumed direct flights after a gap of almost 6 years. A Pakistan merchant vessel docked in Bangladesh for the first time in five decades in November. In another development, Bangladesh announced its intent to diversify its import of sugar from India to include Pakistan. The interim government also announced its plans to diversify its import of other food products from India.
In another first, Bangladesh placed an order for artillery and tank ammunition from Pakistan. The current order for 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition and 2,000 rounds of tank ammunition is far higher than the previous years demand of 12,000 artillery ammunition rounds. Bangladesh’s interim government also reversed a decision permitting private telecom operators to use Bangladesh as a transit point for supplying bandwidth to India’s North East.
The Pakistan-Bangladesh Joint Economic Commission is scheduled to meet shortly. In a report to Islamabad, the High Commissioner of Pakistan to Dhaka conveyed that the Yunus Government seeks to enhance its ties with Pakistan. He added that political parties across the spectrum in Bangladesh are positive towards Pakistan. Pro-Pakistan elements within the Bangladesh bureaucracy and armed forces alongside the Jamaat-e-Islami are pushing for closer ties.
The two nations are bound to move closer as there are ample similarities between them. Both nations are promoting Islamization of their population as a means of diverting attention from a failing economy, increasing inflation as also unemployment. The Jamaat-e-Islami remains a major political force in both nations, with a similar ideology. It spearheads most of the anti-minority protests in both countries.
Bangladesh and Pakistan need backing from international monetary institutions to survive. Their economies are in doldrums. Thus, governments turn a blind eye to the targeting of minorities aware that the public needs an avenue to vent its anger. Despite promises of state responsibility of ensuring security of minorities while demanding non-interference in their internal matters they have done little to curb increasing violence.
Both countries are controlled by the army from the background with limited decision-making authority provided to governments responsible for day-to-day matters. They have both been ruled by the army following coups at some stage in their history. The states are authoritarian with their judiciary compromised, political challengers suppressed and the media curtailed.
In Pakistan, the entire state machinery including the compromised judiciary is being employed to crush Imran Khan’s PTI, while in Bangladesh the same is being done against Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. Interestingly, despite their authoritarian nature, both nations are supported by the US.
For both, Pakistan and Bangladesh, India is a neighbour which remains a major threat, especially as it possesses strong armed forces. While India has displayed no offensive intent, the fear of India as a dominating big brother which seeks to impose its will would push both closer. While Pakistan believes that India seeks to annex POK, Bangladeshis believe India seeks to expand the Chicken’s Neck as also create a safe zone for Bangladeshi Hindu’s. Most Bangladeshis prefer ignoring India’s role in their fight for freedom in 1971.
While Pakistan has been sponsoring terrorism in J and K as also backing the Khalistan movement, Bangladesh is unlikely to be far behind in the near future. North East insurgencies are likely to gain footholds in Bangladesh, adding to India’s security concerns. The ISI had operated freely in Bangladesh, training and equipping anti-India insurgent groups, during its military rule as also when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was in power. It is likely to start doing so once again.
Another common factor is China. China has enhanced its engagement with Bangladesh post the removal of the Sheikh Hasina regime. It recently invited senior members of the BNP as also the Jamaat-e-Islami to Beijing. The intent was to build relations. Joint efforts of the pro-Pakistan and pro-China lobby would ensure closer Bangladesh-Pakistan ties. This would be of concern to India as it would be surrounded by states seeking to push disruptive agendas within.
The recent visit of the Indian foreign secretary to Dacca did convey that India recognizes the interim government and intends to continue supporting Bangladesh as hither-to-fore. It also conveyed that both nations need to work together to overcome distrust while addressing each other’s concerns. However, what would remain a factor is Indian economic and military power resulting in a growing anti-India sentiment. This threat would bring Islamabad and Dacca closer. Overcoming this and rebuilding ties is a challenge for the MEA.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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