Dr Ashish Kaul
In a move that could reshape the geopolitics of South Asia, India’s recent signals to renegotiate or potentially cancel the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) have raised alarms in Pakistan, a nation heavily dependent on the Indus River system for its survival. Signed in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank, the IWT has been a cornerstone of water-sharing between India and Pakistan, allocating the waters of six Himalayan rivers: the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) primarily to Pakistan. The treaty, which has endured wars and decades of hostility, now faces its most significant threat as India contemplates unilateral action. If India were to abrogate the treaty and halt the flow of the western rivers, Pakistan could face an unprecedented catastrophe-a “water bomb” that could cripple its economy, agriculture, and societal stability. However, India’s own infrastructural limitations could exacerbate the crisis, potentially unleashing devastating floods in Pakistan, adding a layer of chaos to an already dire scenario.
Pakistan’s Lifeline: The Indus River System
The Indus River Basin is the backbone of Pakistan’s existence. The western rivers-Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab-supply approximately 76% of Pakistan’s water, irrigating 80% of its agricultural land, which supports 90% of its food production. Pakistan, one of the world’s driest nations with an annual rainfall of just 240 mm, relies on these rivers for 90% of its freshwater needs, sustaining a population of over 240 million. The agricultural sector, which employs nearly 40% of the workforce and contributes 24% to GDP, depends almost entirely on the Indus system’s canal network, one of the largest irrigation systems globally. Additionally, hydropower from dams like Tarbela and Mangla, fed by these rivers, generates a significant portion of Pakistan’s electricity.
Pakistan’s water insecurity is compounded by internal challenges. Mismanaged irrigation, water-intensive crops, and inefficient water management practices have already strained the system. A 2018 International Monetary Fund report ranked Pakistan third among countries facing severe water shortages, with parts of the Indus reduced to a trickle due to over-extraction and climate change impacts. The melting of Himalayan glaciers, which feed the Indus, is expected to initially increase water flow but lead to a long-term decline, reducing peak flows by 2030. Against this backdrop, any disruption in the flow of the western rivers could push Pakistan to the brink.
The Catastrophe of a Water Cutoff
If India were to cancel the IWT and block the flow of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, the consequences for Pakistan would be apocalyptic. Experts estimate that halting water flow could reduce Pakistan’s water availability by up to 70%, effectively turning vast swathes of its fertile Punjab and Sindh provinces into arid wastelands. Agriculture, the lifeline of Pakistan’s economy, would collapse within months. Wheat and rice, which account for 80% of cultivated land, would face catastrophic yield losses, triggering food shortages and skyrocketing prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that a 50% reduction in irrigation water could halve Pakistan’s agricultural output, plunging millions into hunger and poverty.
The ripple effects would be staggering. Rural communities, where 68% of Pakistan’s population resides, would face mass displacement as farmland becomes barren. Urban centers like Lahore and Karachi, already strained by population growth, could see an influx of climate refugees, overwhelming infrastructure and sparking social unrest. Pakistan’s energy sector would also take a hit, as hydropower plants, which supply 30% of electricity, grind to a halt. Blackouts would cripple industries, further deepening an economic crisis in a country already grappling with debt and political instability.
Pakistan’s attorney general has warned that terminating the IWT would be “much more dangerous to Pakistan’s survival than a nuclear strike,” as it would choke the nation’s ability to grow food, leaving it dependent on costly imports at a time when its economy is on the brink of default. Social media posts on X reflect the growing panic, with users describing Pakistan as a “mortgage house” if the treaty is abandoned, predicting that the nation could become a “desert” without Indus water.
India’s Infrastructural Dilemma: A Flooding Nightmare
While India’s potential to weaponize water by blocking the western rivers is a grave threat, its own infrastructural inadequacies could amplify the catastrophe in Pakistan. India lacks sufficient large-scale reservoirs to store the voluminous waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab for more than a few days. The treaty permits India to build run-of-the-river (RoR) hydropower projects on the western rivers, but these have limited storage capacity, designed for power generation rather than long-term water retention. Major dams like Bhakra and Pong, built on the eastern rivers, are irrelevant to controlling the western rivers’ flow. New projects like the Ratle and Kishanganga dams, while contentious, are also RoR facilities with restricted storage.
If India attempts to block the western rivers by diverting or temporarily holding water, its infrastructure could quickly become overwhelmed. During the monsoon season, when river flows peak, excess water could spill over, forcing India to release massive volumes downstream to avoid flooding its own territory, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. Such releases could trigger catastrophic flooding in Pakistan, especially in Punjab and Sindh, where low-lying areas are already vulnerable. The 2010 floods in Pakistan, which killed 2,000 people and inundated one-third of the country, offer a grim precedent. Those floods were partly attributed to heavy monsoon rains, but Pakistan has long accused India of mismanaging water releases, a claim India denies.
Pakistan’s flood management infrastructure is woefully inadequate. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA), responsible for water distribution, struggles with corruption and inefficiencies. Dams like Tarbela and Mangla are primarily designed for irrigation and power, not flood control, and their capacity to absorb sudden surges is limited. Pakistan’s early warning systems and forecasting capabilities are also outdated, leaving communities unprepared for sudden deluges. A 2022 flood, which displaced millions, exposed these vulnerabilities, with damaged canals and embankments still unrepaired. If India’s water releases coincide with monsoon rains, the flooding could be exponentially worse, destroying crops, homes, and infrastructure on an unimaginable scale.
India’s Strategic Calculus and Global Ramifications
India’s push to renegotiate or cancel the IWT stems from a mix of strategic, environmental, and domestic pressures. New Delhi cites changing demographics, the need for clean hydropower, and security concerns in Kashmir-where Pakistan-based militant attacks, like the 2019 Pulwama attack, have fueled calls to “punish” Pakistan by controlling water flows. Indian leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have made provocative statements, with Modi declaring in 2016 that “blood and water cannot flow together.” In 2019, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari threatened to divert all water to Indian states, a move Pakistan condemned as violating the IWT.
However, India’s actions are constrained by practical and diplomatic realities. Beyond its infrastructural limitations, unilaterally abrogating the IWT could damage India’s global reputation as a responsible power, especially as it hosts G20 events and seeks a permanent UN Security Council seat. Neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and China-which share rivers with India-would view such a move warily, fearing similar tactics. China, upstream on the Indus and Sutlej, could retaliate by intensifying its own dam-building, putting India in Pakistan’s position.
The World Bank, a signatory to the IWT, has urged both nations to resolve disputes bilaterally, but Pakistan insists on third-party arbitration, citing its weaker position as the lower riparian state. India’s refusal to engage in the Permanent Court of Arbitration and its suspension of Permanent Indus Commission meetings since 2022 signal a hardening stance. If negotiations fail, India could escalate by diverting water through new projects or, in an extreme scenario, physically blocking flows, though this would require unprecedented engineering feats.
Pakistan’s Precarious Future
For Pakistan, the stakes could not be higher. A water cutoff would transform it from a water-stressed nation into a water-scarce one, with per capita water availability plummeting below the critical 1,000 cubic meters threshold. The resulting food and energy crises could destabilize the government, already grappling with political chaos and a fragile economy. Militant groups could exploit the unrest, further threatening regional security. If flooding follows, as India’s infrastructure buckles under excess water, Pakistan’s unpreparedness would magnify the human toll, potentially displacing millions and erasing decades of development.
Climate change adds another layer of urgency. Melting glaciers and erratic monsoons are already straining the Indus Basin, with projections of a 50% water deficit by 2030. The IWT, designed in an era before climate change was a global concern, lacks provisions for managing these extremes. Experts argue that both nations must renegotiate the treaty to include climate data-sharing and joint disaster management, but mutual distrust makes cooperation unlikely.
A Ticking Time Bomb
The Indus Waters Treaty, once hailed as a model of transboundary cooperation, now teeters on the edge of collapse. If India cancels the treaty and halts the flow of the western rivers, Pakistan faces a slow-motion disaster of drought, famine, and economic ruin. Yet, India’s inability to store vast quantities of water could unleash a secondary catastrophe of flooding, compounding Pakistan’s misery. Both scenarios-starvation or submersion-paint a grim picture for a nation already on the edge.
The international community, led by the World Bank, must act urgently to mediate and prevent escalation. For India, the temptation to use water as a geopolitical weapon must be weighed against the humanitarian and diplomatic costs. For Pakistan, strengthening domestic water management and flood defenses is critical, regardless of the treaty’s fate. As the Indus River, a cradle of ancient civilizations, becomes a battleground, the world watches a crisis that could redefine South Asia’s future-one drop at a time.
(The author is a media veteran, research scholar and a best selling author on Kashmir)
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