Dr Vijay Sagar Dheman
The brutal attack in Pahalgam on April 22nd, which claimed the lives of 26 tourists and injured many more, has sent shockwaves through the region and dramatically escalated tensions between India and Pakistan. In the week following the tragedy (April 22-30, 2025), key Pakistani leaders have publicly expressed growing apprehension about potential military retaliation from India, even as they vehemently deny any involvement in the terror act. Their statements paint a picture of a nation bracing for a possible Indian response, marked by a mix of denial, warnings, and appeals for international intervention.
The serene valley of Baisaran, near the popular tourist spot of Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, became the site of horror when terrorists struck on April 22nd.The victims were primarily Hindu tourists, their loss deeply felt across India. While The Terror Front (TRF) group initially claimed responsibility, they later retracted their statement, adding to the confusion and suspicion surrounding the attack. This was boasted about by the Defence Minister of Pakistan on the floor of Pakistan National Assembly that they could convince the United Nations Security Council not to name TRF in their statement. It is a clear confession by Pakistan that they are handlers of terror groups in India like TRF which is known arm of Jaish e Mohamad.
India’s reaction was swift and accusatory. Prime Minister Modi condemned the attack and vowed to bring the perpetrators and their backers to justice, a clear implication directed towards Pakistan. Within hours, the Indian government publicly blamed its western neighbor, alleging Pakistani involvement in providing support and even personnel for the attack.
In the immediate aftermath, India took strong diplomatic steps against Pakistan. These included halting the Indus Water Treaty, closing the Attari border crossing, expelling Pakistani military advisors, recalling their own from Islamabad, and revoking visas for Pakistani citizens. India also advised its citizens against traveling to Pakistan, citing increased security risks.
Pakistan, while expressing condolences for the loss of life, firmly denied any connection to the Pahalgam attack. They urged India to look inward and address what they described as a failure to protect its own citizens in Jammu and Kashmir. This initial denial soon gave way to a noticeable shift in rhetoric, with Pakistani leaders voicing concerns about India’s next move. However, it was clear that the responses by the senior leaders were nothing but a shock effect of the Indian announcement of measures being taken by India to teach Pakistan a decisive lesson like suspending Indus Water Treaty which would threaten the existence of Punjab Province of Pakistan.
The end of April saw a flurry of statements from Islamabad reflecting this growing anxiety. On April 29th, Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told reporters he believed a military attack from India was “imminent.” He cited India’s increasingly aggressive public statements and briefings from his own military leadership as reasons for this grim assessment. Minister Asif revealed that Pakistan had bolstered its forces along the border and taken “strategic decisions” in response to the perceived threat. He also mentioned that while Pakistan’s forces were on high alert, nuclear weapons would be resorted to defeat India militarily. His words marked a significant change in tone, moving from denial to active anticipation of Indian military action. He also admitted that Pakistan has been doing dirty work of producing Jehadis for last 30 years for USA and Western Nations particularly United Kingdom.
Later the same day, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar took to social media platform X to claim that Islamabad possessed “credible intelligence” pointing to an imminent Indian military attack within the next 24 to 36 hours. He also held press conference, perhaps to invoke international sympathetic response in favour of Pakistan at 0200 hrs at midnight. It could have been due to underlying fear of being hit decisively by India. He alleged that the Pahalgam incident was being used by India as a “false pretext” for aggression and warned that any such action would be met with a “decisive response,” with India bearing full responsibility for the consequences. Minister Tarar’s forceful statement, amplified again on April 30th, underscored the Pakistani government’s conviction about the impending threat.
Adding to the chorus of concern, Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar issued a stark warning on April 30th. He stated that while Pakistan would not initiate military action, any Indian aggression would be met with a response far exceeding a simple tit-for-tat. He declared, “We will respond to a brick with a stone,” signaling the potential for a robust and escalatory reaction.
Even former Prime Minister Imran Khan, now in the opposition, weighed in on the situation on April 30th. While expressing condolences for the Pahalgam victims, his call for India to “act responsibly” could be interpreted as an implicit concern about a potential overreaction from New Delhi.
Collectively, these statements from Pakistan’s leadership in the days following the Pahalgam massacre reveal a palpable and growing fear of Indian military retaliation. The Defence Minister’s assessment of an “imminent” attack, the Information Minister’s claims of “credible intelligence,” and the Deputy Prime Minister’s warning of a disproportionate response all point to a nation on edge, bracing for potential conflict. This anxiety is undoubtedly fueled by India’s strong accusations and immediate punitive diplomatic measures. As the subcontinent remains on high alert, the international community watches with bated breath, hoping for de-escalation and a peaceful resolution to this dangerous escalation.
(The author is a Brigadier)
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