Harsha Kakar
kakarharsha@gmail.com
The visit of the Taliban interim foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to India this week will be closely watched across the region as it would bring India-Afghan relations, quietly nurtured over the years, into the open. In Jan this year, the Indian foreign secretary, Vikram Misri had met Muttaqi in Dubai. In May, there was a tele-conversation between Muttaqi and Jaishankar. Afghanistan had offered condolences for the Pahalgam attack. Other interactions too have occurred over the years.
The visit of Muttaqi to India has been under discussion for some time. The hold up was Muttaqi, like other Taliban leaders, has been under international sanctions since 2001. Sanction to travel has to be granted by the UNSC on a case-by-case basis. India negotiated the same.
Though India has not recognized the Taliban government, it has a technical mission in Kabul and has been providing aid to the country. Since the Taliban takeover, India has supplied over 50,000 tons of wheat alongside other food items. India was the first responder with aid post the Sept earthquake. It sent food, blankets, tents, hygiene kits, medical supplies and generators. India is exploiting the Chabahar port to export items to Afghanistan.
Afghanistan has been in global limelight in recent days. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the Bagram air base, largely developed by the US, be handed back to them. He considers it crucial to monitor Chinese nuclear activities as also Iran. There were media reports in Apr of a US C-17 Globemaster aircraft, post switching off its transponders, landing in Bagram.
It was widely believed that the Taliban had permitted a US monitoring detachment to operate from there. However, in response to Trump’s latest demand, an Afghan Government official mentioned, ‘A deal over even an inch of Afghanistan’s soil is not possible. We don’t need it.’ Hence, it appears that the US attempt to regain a foothold in Bagram, on the pretext of information sharing, was unsuccessful.
China too has been wooing Afghanistan for its own economic and security interests. Its major concern is of Uyghur freedom fighters exploiting Afghan territory to cause unrest in Xinjiang. It also seeks Afghanistan’s untapped mineral wealth, expansion of the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) into the country and through it to Central Asia. Being a regional player, China wants to expand its influence into Afghanistan.
Pakistan has always sought to dominate Afghanistan and consider it as its strategic depth against India. It had initially believed that the Taliban leadership would be subservient to it for support provided during the US led NATO occupation of Afghanistan. However, that did not happen. Today, Pakistan accuses Kabul of supporting the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) and Baloch freedom fighters, an act Afghanistan denies.
Last month PM Shehbaz Sharief visited Bannu in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, post a major attack by the TTP which led to 19 dead and scores injured. He threatened Kabul but to no avail. Sharief stated, ‘Terrorists come from Afghanistan.’
Aug was the worst month for terrorist attacks in Pakistan in over a decade. Currently, Pakistan is spreading the message that India and the Taliban are acting in cahoots against them, terming terrorists as ‘Indian sponsored.’
In retaliation, there are regular air and drone strikes conducted by Pakistan on Afghan soil killing innocent civilians. Border clashes between the two nations is regular. Pakistan regularly shuts border crossings and exploits Afghanistan’s dependency on the Karachi port as blackmail. Added has been Pakistan punishing Kabul by adopting a policy of expulsions. It has deported millions of Afghans living within the country for decades citing security concerns, impacting its influence.
Afghanistan, Pakistan and China have formed a trilateral which meets regularly. The sixth meeting of the trilateral was held in Aug this year in Kabul. Muttaqi had also traveled to Beijing previously for a similar meet. However, this has done little to stop the flow of terrorist attacks.
India’s has been utilizing its soft power in Afghanistan as compared to brutal actions by Pakistan. Even during the Karzai regime, India had been supporting the country by funding multiple developmental projects, some of which were left incomplete. Completion of these will be one of the subjects under discussion in the forthcoming visit of Muttaqi.
Fearing close Pak-Taliban ties could impact its personnel in the embassy and consulates, India withdrew its diplomatic staff alongside NATO withdrawal. It took time and patience but India is back in the saddle in Kabul. Delhi has been encouraging Kabul to utilize the Chabahar port as an alternative, bypassing Karachi, thereby removing Pak pressure. In early 2024, Afghanistan offered to invest USD 35 Million in building a commercial and trade complex within the Chabahar Special Economic Zone.
As Islamabad-Kabul relations deteriorate, Delhi-Kabul relations gain ground. For Afghans, India is a friend and Pakistan an enemy. This is evident even in the sporting arena, where Afghans support Indian teams against Pakistan. India has also been providing education scholarships and medical visas to Afghans, adding to soft power.
For India, Afghanistan is essential for its trade with Central Asia as also in preventing anti-India terrorist groups exploiting the country for training camps. One growing area of concern for both nations is terrorism emanating from Pakistan. It is well known that Pakistan sponsors terrorist groups on Indian soil. It is also the nation backing ISIS operating in Afghanistan as also has ties with the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan freedom Front.
A major stumbling block in India’s support to Afghanistan is Trump’s recent action to revoke sanctions waiver on the Chabahar port. The US announcement mentioned that ‘individuals linked to operations at the port would be exposed to sanctions under the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act.’
The US is claiming this to be part of its maximum pressure policy against Iran but misses the point that it is important to both, India and Afghanistan. There are limited options as trade through Pakistan is unreliable.
This will likely be discussed during the visit of Muttaqi. India will have to find a way to overcome US sanctions on Chabahar. sanctions may possibly also come up for discussion between Trump and PM Modi when they meet in Kaula Lumpur next month.
Growing Indo-Afghan ties will impact Pakistan, which has employed every trick to keep the two apart.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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