Prof K S Chandrasekar Energy is an area of concern for the livelihood of people all over the world and India is no exception considering the largest population base. While shortages in the foreseeable future can be addressed with intelligent future proof strategies, in the long run securing energy supplies is possible only with a broad range of measures including diversification of energy carriers and technologies and mobilisation of conservation reactivation and efficiency boosting strategies. An analysis of the Indian context is very relevant in the backdrop of the galloping oil prices and our ambition to establish as a world power by the first quarter of 21st century. It is seen that the price rise in crude oil is pulling down macroeconomic growth by rising inflation and unemployment and by depressing the value of financial and other assets and impacting consumer spending growth hitting the discretionary budget. The progress of human race started after domestication of fire and energy is the primary growth agent for any society. Major inventions in the application of energy have always resulted in quantum leaps in the advancement of society for better living. Steam engines, gasoline engines and nuclear power were not just inventions but were milestones in the history of human race. The industrialized world took availability of energy as granted in the beginning and up to the latter part of 20th century and wheels of growth were rolling unthreatened at a steady pace. But the oil price shocked in 1973/74 and in 1979/80 abruptly acted as an eye opener. Securing supply of energy at an affordable price got focussed as a main requirement for the sustainable development of any economy and the energy policies of major countries across the globe were recast with thrust on security of energy supplies. The five principal areas which have a direct bearing on energy security, namely a. Domestic production capacity b. Dependence on imports c. Degree of import concentration d. Stocks and strategic petroleum reserves e. The world excess capacity was given due prominence in the recast policies. While shortages in the foreseeable future can be addressed with intelligent future proof strategies, in the long run securing energy supplies is possible only with a broad range of measures including diversification of energy carriers and technologies and mobilisation of conservation reactivation and efficiency boosting strategies. An analysis of the Indian context is very relevant in the backdrop of the galloping oil prices and our ambition to establish as a world power by the first quarter of 21st century. India is experiencing a rapid growth in its energy demand concomitant with its economic growth and industrialisation. GDP is currently growing at 6.5% and the demand for crude oil alone is expected to reach 355 to 360 MMT (Million Metric Tons) per annum by 2030 whereas the present consumption is only 118 MMT. Similarly, the requirement of natural gas is expected to reach 400 MCM from the current supply level of 65 MCM (Million Cubic Metre). At the present level the per capita oil consumption of the country is only 0.4 TOE (Tons of oil Equivalent) whereas the world average hovers around 1.6 TOE. Similar is the situation in other fields. Currently, India accounts for only 2.9% of world’s energy consumption whereas it accounts for 17 % of world population. It can be assumed that as we go up on the economic ladder total energy requirement to sustain the growth will be enormous even as we reach world average in per capita consumption… Total indigenous availability at the existing rate will be only 30% of the requirement and the balance of the requirement will have to be met by imports. If we depend on a foreign source for our supplies the issue of ensuring the ‘flow in’ becomes more relevant. It is seen that the price rise in crude oil is pulling down macroeconomic growth by rising inflation and unemployment and by depressing the value of financial and other assets and impacting consumer spending growth hitting the discretionary budget. 10% increase in oil price is known to reduce GDP by 0.5%. Though it is not possible for India to insulate itself in a global village, it is imperative to devise strategies to ensure that total energy needs are securely met by different sectors from foreign or indigenous sources at an optimal cost and considering the scramble for oil worldwide. At the outset, the energy requirement up to 2030 sustaining the high economic growth rate must be established. It depends on the thrust areas selected by the government for economic growth as per the long-term development plans based on the resource availability within the nation. The current sector-wise energy demand is shown below. Industrial sector demand constitutes 55% of the total demand, transport sector demand was 20% and residential and commercial sector demand was 25%. Similarly, an analysis of the demand by fuel would reveal that the requirement for coal is 54.2% that for natural gas 6.5% for oil 31.3% hydroelectric power 7.1% and nuclear 0.9%. This trend is based on the current development policies followed by the Government. For example, an aggressive plan to develop agriculture may lead to a shift in the demand pattern of fuels. Reversely based on the availability and affordability of fuels, development plans can also be formulated. In other words, a proper estimation of energy requirement by various sectors can give directional guidance to the formulation of a sustainable development plan. Energy systems are complicated with their interlinkage with other aspects of economy, and hence there exist trade-off among the core indicators and the perspective for different economies differs. S.R. Shakya analyzed aggregate and sectoral energy intensities in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka during 2000-2017 and decomposed the aggregate energy intensity into its four key determinants. Energy equity is an important consideration for assessment, development and implementation of sustainable energy efficiency policies of a country. India has made substantial progress in improving energy efficiency which is evident from the reductions achieved in energy intensities of GDP to the tune of 88% during 1980-2007. Scanning of world energy scenario is to be done to know the availability – present and future- price trends, new discoveries and the political trends. Long-term and short-term strategies are to be evolved to ensure supplies are required. Energy based political equations must be evolved and diplomacy must be practiced. As indicated in the introduction intensity of energy import from few countries is not a welcome situation. Based on these projections the selection of energy sectors for different segments is to be re looked and a proper energy mix to be decided for various segments. This phase requires sample survey of industries where new energy mix can be tried. The new energy mix model proposed requires re alignment of various sources and enforcement of new consumption patterns and policies. May be a country like India having immense coal reserves have to go back to coal for many applications but with new technologies to reduce its harmful emissions. An analysis of the potential of new alternate sources and strategies to promote them to be evolved. Currently the efficiency of usage of energy in India is very low. There is an urgent need to find more efficient fuel usage and conservation. Rewarding strategies are to be formulated to ensure reduction in wastages. (The author is Vice Chancellor, Cluster University of Jammu)
