India at crossroads
Dr Varinder Sharma
drvarindersharmabjp@gmail.com
In the 1970s, American researcher Dr. John B. Calhoun conducted a striking experiment known as “Universe 25”, where mice were given everything they needed – food, water, shelter, and safety. Yet, as their population exploded, their society collapsed. Overcrowding led to aggression, isolation, and eventually extinction. This chilling study remains a powerful reminder that unchecked population growth and social disconnection can destroy even the most perfect environment.
India, now the world’s most populous country, is at a critical juncture. The demographic dividend – the economic boost from a large, young workforce is a potential boon, but the ever-increasing numbers continue to strain resources and infrastructure, raising a fundamental question: Can we sustain the quality of life amidst the quantity of people? A stampede at a temple in southern India’s Andhra Pradesh state that killed at least nine people and injured others a few days ago is an example of how we are handling crowds.
The sheer scale of India’s population growth is staggering. In the 1941 Census, just before independence, the population of undivided India was around 318 million. The 1951 Census recorded the population of the Republic of India at approximately 361 million. Today, India’s population has ballooned to over 1.4 billion, representing a massive increase that puts immense pressure on every facet of national life.
This population explosion has led to visible everyday struggles. From overcrowded urban clusters to even neighbourhood localities, the signs are clear: no parking space, chaotic crowds where queues are ignored, and a healthcare system where hospitals are frequently without beds for all patients. These micro-level incidents mirror a national macro-level crisis, exemplified by tragic events like stampedes in temples or public transit areas, where crowds become tragically unmanageable. The basic tenets of a comfortable, orderly life-space, resources, and civic amenities-deteriorate with every unchecked addition to the populace.
The topic of population control is politically sensitive, largely due to the shadows of the past. During the Emergency (1975-1977), a controversial mass sterilization campaign was spearheaded by Sanjay Gandhi under the leadership of his mother, the then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. This aggressive policy, which often involved coercive tactics and forced procedures, led to a significant public backlash and contributed heavily to the electoral defeat of the Gandhi government in 1977. Since then, successive governments have been cautious, emphasizing that family planning must be entirely voluntary.
Despite the past, India has seen successful, voluntary family planning initiatives. The famous slogan ‘Hum Do Hamare Do’ (We two, ours two) was part of a national campaign created in the late 1960s to promote the small family norm. The image of a couple with two children, often represented by the inverted red triangle, became a cultural marker for family planning across the country. Today when we are almost 140 crore and there is no road ahead to control the population at least we can encourage people to go in for a maximum of three children though many are nowadays opting to have two and even one child norm.
In recent years, the conversation about legislative measures has resurfaced. The Indian government has not formally introduced a bill to put a universal sealing on birth control, but private member bills and proposals advocating for a two-child norm through incentives and penalties have been tabled in Parliament. These proposals generally aim to incentivize smaller families (e.g., in jobs, education, and subsidies) and disincentivize larger ones (e.g., disqualification from certain government posts).
An entirely different, but often linked, policy discussion involves the Uniform Civil Code (UCC). The UCC, as enshrined in Article 44 of the Constitution’s Directive Principles, aims to replace the personal laws (based on religious scriptures) governing matters like marriage, divorce, inheritance, and adoption with a single, common set of laws for all citizens, regardless of their religion.
While the UCC’s primary goals are to promote national integration and gender equality, its proponents argue that it could also indirectly aid population control. By standardizing laws across all communities, the UCC could help reinforce a small-family norm across the social spectrum, aligning legal incentives with public health goals. The UCC would standardize marriage laws across all communities, enforce a uniform minimum age of marriage for all communities and enhance women’s social and economic autonomy by granting women equal rights in property inheritance, divorce, and maintenance across all religions.
This empowerment is strongly correlated globally with better family planning and a preference for smaller families. These two streams of policy direct incentivization/penalization and indirect socio-legal reform form the heart of India’s current strategy to manage its immense population. The impact of population policy on a nation’s trajectory is undeniable, and the case of China is often cited.
Starting in 1979, China implemented the rigorous One-Child Policy to curb its surging population. While highly controversial due to its draconian enforcement, the policy is credited by some economists with contributing to China’s rapid economic progress by initially creating a demographic dividend-a larger working-age population relative to dependents.
However, the policy has resulted in severe long-term consequences, including a skewed gender ratio and a rapidly aging population, forcing the country to reverse the policy. China’s experience shows that while population control can spur development, the methods must be humane and sustainable to avoid a future demographic crisis.
If the population growth rate continues to outpace the growth in resources and infrastructure, the consequences of the “population explosion” will be severe. This will create resource scarcity which will increase competition for basic necessities like water, food, and energy, leading to shortages and conflict. Environmental degradation which will be the result of higher demands for land, resulting in deforestation and intensified pollution of air and water bodies. A reduced per capita income and increased unemployment, as the number of job seekers vastly outnumbers opportunities, fuelling poverty will create economic constraints.
Finally, overburdened healthcare and education systems, which we are seeing now will make quality services accessible only to a privileged few and lead to deteriorating public services. Controlling population is no longer just a matter of birth rates; it is about resource management, sustainable development, and ensuring dignity for every citizen. The future of India depends on a balanced, voluntary, and progressive approach that empowers families to choose a smaller family for a brighter future.
We need to incentivise population control and also penalise the defaulters which is the best example of carrot and stick policy. This is how India can balance between its resources and population and finally help people get quality life in a developed nation. First and foremost we need to announce subsidies for housing/land, give rebates on utility charges, increase pension contributions for civil servants and go in for soft loans for those who voluntarily comply with population control norms. And those who do not comply with norma must be disqualified from contesting local body elections and there should be a bar in applying for government jobs.
Similarly, those who comply with the norms must be given preference in education opportunities and healthcare for children and contrarily there should be a bar from accessing certain social welfare schemes and subsidies for the violators. The core idea is to shift from the coercive methods of the emergency era to a system of disincentivization.
Critics might argue that such penalties can be discriminatory and primarily affect the poor and marginalized communities who often lack access to education and family planning services, forcing them into difficult choices. Furthermore, some demographers warn that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is already declining naturally and that such drastic measures could lead to a future demographic problem, similar to China’s aging population crisis, which is predicted to create a shortage of young workers but a beginning has to be made.
India’s population explosion has become a ticking time bomb, threatening the very fabric of our society and the balance between people and resources. Unless we act now through strict population control measures, better family planning, rural development, and awareness about responsible parenthood, the dream of a prosperous and sustainable India will remain out of reach.
This is possible under the regime of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is also working on the subject but needs country’s support to take some tough yet popular decisions. It is time for policymakers and citizens alike to wake up to this harsh reality and take decisive steps to ensure that growth is not measured merely by numbers, but by the dignity, health, and well-being of every Indian.
(The writer is Co-Convenor, BJP Health Cell, J&K)
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