Anil Anand
a.anil.anand@gmail.com
The outcome of the Bihar assembly elections has to be taken at its face-value till the time the accusers furnish clinching evidence to buttress their claims of “managed poll outcome”. Nonetheless, the drubbing that the opposition ‘Mahagatbhandhan (MGB)’ (I.N.D.I.A combine in the national context) has received in the state, in no way erases doubt in this context.
However, one thing is crystal clear that it has left the opposition alliance, whatever had been left of it before Bihar elections, in tatters. As it is, most of the regional satraps including Trinamool Congress chief Mamta Banerjee, Nationalist Congress Party (SCP) boss Sharad Pawar, Samajwadi Party head Akhilesh Yadav etc. have already been pulling in different directions. Congress, notwithstanding its own idiosyncrasies, has been their prime and persistent target, thereby creating an atmosphere filled with distrust.
Apart from the emphatic victory of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the other clarity is about bleak future of opposition alliance in its present form. I.N.D.I.A bloc, which should have been gearing itself for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections enroute few more rounds of assembly elections in some important states such as West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, is finding itself on the cross-roads.
Should the constituents, with overriding distrust, continue to drag the alliance, or go their own ways? Should the Congress, the only national party in the opposition camp, and the regional political parties chart their own course, till they meet again?
The opposition ‘MGB’s decimation in Bihar should stir the opposition parties, particularly the Congress, into a process of self-introspection. The storm which has struck them in Bihar can blow them over again if they fail to identify their weaknesses, mostly self-inflicted, and initiate redemptive measures on a war-footing. Or else, all talk of stopping the Narendra Modi juggernaut, in all its manifestations, is absurd and sheer wastage of time.
NATIONAL CRISES:
From the opposition unity or existence point of view, near wash-out in the electorally significant Bihar definitely has serious ramifications at the national level. The MGB in the state was a localized alliance and it was formulated without the active involvement, if not electoral participation, of the broader I.N.D.I.A combine. The foundation for this impending crisis had been laid much before the Bihar polls with none of the alliance partners showing any interest to exhibit semblance of unity to counter the rock like NDA.
While the NDA campaigned in Bihar like a cohesive unit, the MGB (the shade of I.N.D.I.A) failed to portray a united face. The Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD’s) initial reluctance on seat-sharing and Congress’s irrational demands and reservations to declare Tejashwi Yadav as chief ministerial candidate, followed by Leader of Opposition, Rahul Gandhi’s lack of interest to conduct joint campaign with the former, and embarking on a fortnight long foreign visit in the midst of elections, made the task easier for the Modi-Nitish Kumar combine.
The outcome is for everyone to see and the crisis is staring the opposition bandwagon in the eyes more seriously than ever before. It has popped a new question- whether Congress, with its inability to deliver at crucial times such as Bihar assembly elections, could be a valuable ally or a liability? Vice versa, the same question mark is on the regional satraps who have, ever since the I.N.D.I.A combine came into being, been targeting Congress and Mr Gandhi in particular thereby giving an added advantage to the BJP.
There is no denying the fact that the Congress being a national party and a pivot around which the Opposition unity revolved, and its public face Mr Gandhi will be more in the deck than the regional parties and their leaders. Pragmatism demands that while it will be in order to question him and his party, entirely absolving the regional players could be fraught with further dangerous consequences for opposition unity and the national interest.
THE WAY FORWARD:
Given the prevailing dissections in the opposition camp with respective political parties such as Congress and RJD having their share of internal problems, to expect an immediate attempt at renewing unity efforts is like chasing a mirage. Should they chart on path to reconstruct opposition unity or let I.N.D.I.A collapse?
The answers to these questions will shape India’s political landscape in the run up to the next general elections. It can, at present, be definitively said that the opposition-centric politics, to challenge the might of Mr Modi, has certainly entered a phase of profound uncertainty. It depends how Congress and regional satraps address this issue or simply prefer to wither away. The stakes are high and the time is clearly running out for them. Sooner they put their act together, the better it will be.
CONGRESS’s OUTLOOK:
The biggest question staring the party is whether the time has come for it to run solo? Or it can still give a try to weaving the opposition unity around it or a new formulation hemmed by the regional parties?
The answer to either of these questions lies in the fact that if the Congress leadership (read Mr Gandhi) is in any mood to rejuvenate the organisation and remove its inherent weaknesses? Despite his repeated public assertions, even he has not shown any positive inclination towards this direction. Whether in alliance or going solo, either way organisational weaknesses will continue to prove Congress’s nemesis. It is baffling why this basic aspect is being ignored at least by Mrs Sonia Gandhi.
First and foremost, the Grand Old Party (GOP) must gain strength through far-reaching organisational changes. It should involve getting rid of the dead-wood, break the syndicate of the so-called tried and trusted veterans who are deft at sabotaging, infuse fresh blood and groom regional and community leaders.And last but not the least indulge in social engineering on the basis of the party’s old model rather than the current approach of antagonising one at the cost of the other. This approach has considerably helped the BJP in strengthening its Hindutva forces. The idea should be to dent these forces and not to consolidate.
There is no doubt Mr Gandhi has rare qualities of head and heart. And his sincerity of purpose has been for everyone to see. These are rare qualities in the modern-day politics, but the present-day politics demands more. He will have to build an edifice using this foundation which is not enough in itself.
There is a serious crisis in the GOP due to lack of communication between the leaders and the rank and file. This malady has afflicted the AICC, starting from Mr Gandhi’s level, down to the PCC levels. In fact there is no listening post such as the late Mr Ahmed Patel who used to burn mid-night oil listening and interacting with the party-persons. Much to their chagrin his successor K C Venugopal if has his hands “too full”, he is handicapped by lack of communication skills. On top of that over-arching culture of arrogance, from top to bottom, has brought the GOP to the present pass.
The outcome of this opacity is that the vested interest has grown stronger.The leaders in the seat of power are whiling away their time knowing fully well that they are neither accountable nor answerable to anybody.
The redemption process should start with Mr Gandhi. Start better means of communication with party leaders and workers at the middle and lower rungs, throw your doors open to have direct feed back from the ground. More importantly, everyone in the AICC and the PCCs should be made accountable for their actions and not allowed a free run.
REGIONAL SATRAPS:
Even the strong regional players such as Ms Banerjee, Mr Pawar or DMK chief, Mr Stalin, cannot afford to work in isolation as they run the higher risk, than ever before, of being muzzled by the Centre. The political ambitions of the Modi-Amit Shah duo in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are well known, so the enhanced risk of survival to the regional satraps in these states.
They must also come out of the self-professed ego-shells and act realistically for their own political survival and to ensure a strong opposition which is in the national interest.
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