Poonam I Kaushish
Unity in disunity or disunity in unity? Flummoxed? Certainly, as borne out by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). Why, am I writing about Maharashtra’s municipal elections? Simply, as it could be a for-runner of the shape of politics to come.
If Mahayuti’s (BJP-Shinde-SS-Ajit Pawar-NCP) triumph in November 2024 Assembly elections marked, BJP’s resurgence after last year’s Lok Sabha reversal, Friday’s local body poll results confirmed consolidation and deeper penetration of its power in Maharashtra, fragmenting the Opposition and preying upon its allies. Sounding warning bells for Shinde’s SS and Ajit’s NCP.
The BMC results offer three lessons. One, BJP is clearly the preferred Party of urban Maharashtra, and its agenda, combination of developmental aspirations and Hindutva has prevailed over regional and ethnic sentiments articulated by smaller Parties. Two, its gains have come at the expense of two regional outfits that have been pivot to State politics, united SS and united NCP. The win now puts it in pole position in the country commercial Capital for the first time
Three, BJP gains a commanding position and seems unstoppable in the backdrop of its spectacular success in Maharashtra, Haryana and Bihar. The win raises Chief Minister Fadnavis stature given how he adroitly broke SS and NCP, forcing collapse of MVA (Congress-Thackeray SS-Sharad Pawar NCP) Government 2022, won Assembly election 2024 and now swept local polls. This should energize it ahead of crucial Assembly elections in five States: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry.
For Opposition, Maharashtra is a story of lost opportunities, leaving it diminished and in disarray. A SS-UBT-Congress alliance may have turned BMC polls into a close contest. Two, the non-BJP groups will need to consolidate their vote bases if they seek to challenge the organisational might and financial resources of the saffron outfit. Given BJP is good at leveraging its position as the ruling Party in the Centre and State.
Old forms of mobilisation, patronage or legacy are no longer sufficient to stall the BJP juggernaut. The Pawars were quick to recognise this, borne out by the first post-result meeting of both NCP factions which decided the pre-poll alliance will continue for the upcoming panchayat and zilla parishad polls.
The NCP needs to save this base and Pawars coming together may help but only for now. Sharad has been exceptionally good at managing the satrap-centric politics around cooperatives but that order is changing. Politics in the State has become transactional and is increasingly centralized and family loyalty may no longer translate into political backing. Going ahead NCP will need to look beyond Brand Pawar and articulate a new politics to retain their identity and influence.
For Congress it is a double whammy. From being a hegemon it has been reduced to an also-ran in Maharashtra. Undeniably, it did well in 2024 Lok Sabha elections but post its dismal performance in Bihar, Maharashtra and Haryana murmurs abound on Rahul being non-effective and nonchalant. Ironically, it continues to ostrich like bury its head in the sand, despite realizing it needs a leg-up from allies. Happy in the fallacious belief that it directly fights the Hindutva Brigade in about 250 Lok Sabha seats hence no anti-BJP mobilisation can be possible without it.
Nationally, Congress’s ineffectuality is one of BJP’s key advantages. This is complemented by any regional satrap’s inability to play a pan-India role as in many States they have grown fighting Congress and its State leaders see regional Parties as rivals to be beaten, not allies in any anti-BJP alliance.
For regional Parties, Congress is a useful ally but they are careful not to let it revive and become a behemoth again. An issue which needs redressal as it struggles to offer a viable alternative to BJP. In Telangana and Karnataka it was successful against regional groups. In contrast, in Bihar and Tamil Nadu it is forced to play second fiddle. Ditto in Maharashtra where both NCP and Shiv Sena (U) though weakened by splits refused to give in to Congress’s tantrums.
In UP Samajwadi drove a hard bargain and ensured its interests prevailed vis-à-vis seat distribution. In Bihar disappointment, anger and suspicion is rife amongst local leadership as it believes it was short-changed. As for SS, in electoral terms the SS legacy seems now firmly with Shinde as the united Thackeray cousins: Udhav and Raj failed to ignite their vote-banks.
TMC’s Mamata is banking on her upcoming West Bengal victory to propel her on national stage as she feels there’s a vacuum in Opposition space, post Congress’s poll defeats. Her plan is based on two tactics: One, ensure a broad understanding among all non-BJP players in a State whereby it’s sole challenger to BJP. Two, build her stature along-with relationship with other satraps whereby she is seen as the obvious candidate who has a track record, network and credibility to emerge as the alliance face.
Surely, how the narratives pans out in coming days will be watched. BJP has already thrown down the gauntlet by projecting and redefining nationalism, refreshing Hindutva and country’s self respect. Given its winning streak it’s looks like an unbeatable monolith. While Opposition has yet to zero in on a winning narrative onwards, as it continues to whine about BJP vitiating the atmosphere by crippling institutions even as it questions whether elections will be free, fair or foul.
Clearly, in this minefield of contradictions where strategies are crafted with vote-bank dividends in mind forging a path ahead for Opposition strategy and bonding is easier said than done in a polity that is for more splintered, has sharply defined regional areas and consequently many more turf wars. It will require foresight, nimbleness and flexibility.
So far it has presented a disunited front amidst unity bonhomie. Nothing more. If they want to play the game right the Opposition will have to start lengthening their stride. Remember, a weak and divided Opposition by any name will remain a weak Opposition.
As democratic governance becomes more complex, Opposition has to think beyond seat-sharing and ego massaging, strike the right balance between being popular and taking care of popular interest with a long term vision. Either way it is good for India’s democracy to have more regional satraps instead of less. Remember, the business of shaping Bharat is not a matter of arithmetic but of politics. —– INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
19 January 2026
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