By Tirthankar Mitra
KOLKATA: Defeating Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress by BJP in West Bengal is easier said than done even as BJP leaders are speaking of government formation after the assembly elections in April/May this year. Having failed to sweep successive Lok Sabha and Bidhan Sabha elections despite pulling out all stops the saffron camp’s hopes of winning 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections rest on anti-incumbency, pan-Bengal Hindu consolidation and a narrative alleging TMC corruption.
Based on these issues, the campaign of the BJP in the poll bound state will be pitted against the charisma of TMC supremo and chief minister, Mamata Banerjee and the populist projects of her government which had paid her rich electoral dividends. Overcoming these poll platforms of TMC will be toughest electoral test yet for the saffron camp.
Flinging allegations of corruption at the TMC-run state government appears to be the best bet for the BJP as it is about to hit the campaign trail. The cash for job charge and the incriminating bundles of cash recovered from the house of the companion of former TMC secretary general and education minister, Partha Chattopadhyay and the rape and murder of a lady doctor of RG Kar Medical College and Hospital have placed TMC leadership on a sticky wicket.
Coupled with it, the saffron camp has in its sights the anti-incumbency factor and consolidation of Hindu votes. The anti-incumbency factor is nullified as the state saffron camp lacks a leader who can be projected as the CM face.
The saffron camp has not got its Hindu votes equation right. The community may not be enamoured of the ruling dispensation but it is unlikely to vote en masse for the BJP.
Though leader of the Opposition, Suvendu Adhikari is by far the most popular and visible BJP leader, he has his detractors in his own camp. Several senior state leaders have pointed out to the national leadership that they have been in the party when Adhikari had been Mamata Banerjee principal lieutenant.
Moreover, the TMC is organisationally way ahead of the BJP. The organisational network of the Trinamool saw the party through though Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah may have dropped in the state and fuelled the poll fever on earlier occasions.
Things have come to such a pass that the saffron camp could not deploy a leader from the state to tone up the organisational flab. It handpicked Union minister Bhupendra Yadav last September and entrusted him to make the party poll ready.
The man from the central leadership started to boost the party’s grassroot network. But state saffron camp sources stated that Yadav found the time insufficient for the task allotted to him.
The state BJP does not have enough booth level activists whose presence or absence can spell victory or defeat of a nominee on the polling day, sources stated. The number of legislators in the saffron camp would have been more had these activists stayed out on the polling day in 2021 Assembly elections.
Meanwhile, the Trinamool supremo in a continuation of her 2021 playbook continues to refer to BJP activists and leaders as ‘outsiders.’ In the backdrop of Special Intensive Revision (SIR), none like to be tagged an “outsider’ in poll bound West Bengal.
Desertions have already deleted the number of BJP legislators. Mamata Banerjee’s charisma and TMC’s three straight victories will not make too many individuals eager to contest as saffron camp nominees in the coming elections.
Concern over SIR and a split in the BJP leadership in the Matua community is likely to cost BJP dear in the coming election. There has been a public spat between BJP MP and Union minister Shantanu Thakur and his brother, Subrata Thakur, a BJP MLA.
The Matuas are a Dalit religious group spread over several parts of West Bengal whose block support led to spectacular poll results of BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. They have been s bulwark of the saffron camp and its performance though it is doubtful whether it can be repeated.
The saffron camp cheer leaders seem to be depending on too many ifs and buts. Some of the head honchos of the state BJP feel that several Muslim groups unhappy at the TMC failure to prevent them from being dropped from the Other Backward Castes (OBC) list will vote for the BJP.
But in pursuit of this thinking, these leaders have overlooked their own narrative of tagging several portions of the minority community as “outsiders” and “infiltrators”. In the event, even if these groups change their political allegiance, the saffron camp will be the last outfit they will vote for.
These groups are apprehensive of being excluded from the voter list during the ongoing SIR exercise. Given their past experience with BJP, they feel that they will get short shrift once the saffron camp comes to power.
The TMC supremo has been accused of theatrics after she pleaded the allegation of harassment of the people of West Bengal during SIR exercise. But her appearance in Supreme Court carried a message to her voters which is likely to be reflected in their choice when they exercise their franchise.
The message of the Mamata Banerjee government after it hiked spending in women’s welfare scheme is one of cooperation. The women voters receiving the enhanced in women centric cash benefit projects are unlikely to vote against their benefactor, the TMC; a fact which the BJP leaders admit in private. The BJP high command is screening the list if party candidates for West Bengal. The final picture will emerge only in the last week of this month. Once the candidates names are announced officially, the poll campaign will be started by the BJP in full swing. (IPA Service)
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