Dr. D.K. Giri
Nepal is prone to earthquakes. And there has been a tsunami on 7 March 2016, the day of national elections in Nepal. A rapper-turned politician, Balendra Shah – popularly known as Balen, secured a massive mandate defeating the traditional mainstream political parties – Nepali Congress and CPN-UML. This marks a radical shift in the democratic journey of Nepal since it became a republic. It calls for restratesizing India’s Nepal policy.
On 7 March, Balen’s Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) secured a sweeping victory in the elections to the 275-member Parliament winning 182 seats. It is two-thirds majority, compared to Nepali Congress obtaining merely 37 seats followed by CPN-UML with 26 seats. Other smaller parties like Nepal Communist Party won 16 seats, the Shram Sanskriti Party 7 seats and the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party 5 seats. Balendra Shah, at the age of 35, got such an overwhelming mandate which is unprecedented in Nepal’s Parliamentary history.
The last comparable moment could be 1959, when the Nepali Congress under the leadership of D.P. Koirala secured a two-thirds majority in the erstwhile Parliament comprising 109 members. Although the democratic process, after the end of the Rana oligarchy was soon interrupted, the elections of 1959 had remained a landmark in Nepal’s political history. After 67 years, on 7 March 2026, the massive mandate obtained by Balendra Shah has once again revived the interest in political renewal and democratic transition in Nepal.
In the last election, the conventional splits in Nepali politics on the bases of region, religion, caste, ethnicity and even party affiliations appeared to have receded, at least for the time being. The rise of Balendra Shah is eminently spectacular because just a few years ago he was hardly known in national political circles. He comes from a modest non-political background. His father, Ram Narayan Shah, has been an ayurvedic doctor. Balendra studied structural engineering in Bangalore, India. As a rapper, he had a sizeable following among the urban youth, a connection that helped him in politics in mobilizing the younger generation.
Balen’s electoral breakthrough came in 2022 when he won the election to the post of Mayor of Kathmandu metropolitan city as an independent candidate. At that time, many observers believed that he had a ghost of a chance as politics was dominated by established parties and certain political elites. In that context, Balendra Shah, a candidate of Madheshi origin, winning the elections, was a radical departure from conventional politics. Balen’s victory marked not only an electoral upset but also the growing exasperation of voters with the established political order. The same frustration continued upto the unrest by students and youths followed by the political tsunami in reference.
Balendra Shah had, during his mayoral tenure, confronted bureaucratic inertia and resistance by vested political interests. At any rate, Balendra Shah becoming the Prime Minister will create history of sorts as no leader of Madheshi origin has so far occupied the office of the Prime Minister. This should make up for the long-standing grievance of Madheshi Nepalese over political exclusion within the national power structure.
That said, the extraordinary victory of Balendra Shah enjoins enormous responsibilities upon his leadership. Nepal today is said to be steeped in corruption, unemployment, political opportunism. Note the number of governments made and unmade through political defections since the promulgation of the new Constitution in 2015.
The lack of gainful employment is so rampant in Nepal, that out of a population of about 30 million, above 6 million young Nepalese are believed to be working abroad; another 7-8 million are estimated to be employed in India. Almost every day, thousands of young Nepalese migrate from Nepal in search of better opportunities. This large scale migration has significant social consequences. This cannot go on forever.
Geo-politically, Nepal is sandwiched between two big rivaling powers – India and China. Given Chinese aggressive expansionism, Kathmandu has to maintain a delicate balance between New Delhi and Beijing. Any perceptible tilt towards either power creates political sensitivities at home and strategic concerns abroad.
Under the circumstances, public expectations from Balendra Shah will be naturally quite high. Many citizens and observers would expect Balen to provide good governance which has been direly missing. So in Nepal, it is a time of great expectation. The overwhelming mandate should help Balen Shah to steer the ship through the troubled waters. But it will all boil down to his political sagacity learning the ropes sooner than later.
How does India view this election and the way ahead? To begin with, as always, Nepal’s recent elections have drawn significant attention in India with many Nepal watchers weighing in on the implications for bilateral relations and regional dynamics. India’s relations with Nepal have been close as well as complex, with issues like border disputes and hydro power projects often taking centre-stage.
India sees Nepal as crucial to its neighbourhood policy, with stability in the region being a key concern. India’s investments in Nepal’s hydropower and infrastructure sectors make the country’s political stability vital for Indian interests. Third, the India-Nepal border remains a sensitive topic with ongoing discussions on territories like Kalapani. Observers believe that New Delhi would engage with the new government in Nepal, focusing mainly in areas like energy, trade and security.
It is expected that Balendra Shah, a Madheshi, should be well-disposed to India. Madhesis have close cultural proximity with India, what is popularly known as roti-beti relations (sharing food and exchanging daughters in marriage). But cultural affinities do not always translate into bilateral relations. Kamala Harris, with an Indian mother was not necessarily friendly with India when she was the Vice-President of USA.
Likewise, Rishi Sunak, the former British Prime Minister of Indian origin was not overly friendly with India although he openly and proudly asserted his Hindu religion. Antony Costa, the former Portuguese Prime Minister and currently the President of European Council, who was one of the Chief Guests at this year’s Republic Day celebration, has been somewhat friendly with India. So it can go either way with Balendra Shah. He may try to distance himself from India and tilt towards China to show his neutrality and avoid kinship nepotism. But he need not do so as he is politically secured with two-thirds majority in the Parliament.
New Delhi also has to be sensitive to the Madheshi origin of the new Prime Minister of Nepal, Balendra Shah. In the past, New Delhi has burnt its fingers by supporting the cause of Madheshi, by imposing a blockade at the borders. Some of us argued then that India should deal with Nepal while leveraging its cultural affinity with Madheshi as well as Hinduism in Nepal (esp. for BJP).
Likewise, India had alienated Sri Lanka by supporting the Tamil insurgents and now the Hindus in Bangladesh. It is true that Indian civil society – Biharis for Madheshi, VHP for Hindus in Bangladesh, and Tamils for Sri Lankan Tamil – will speak up for the legitimate rights of the people mentioned in these three countries. But Government of India should deal with the governments in those countries; that is how New Delhi reset ties with Nepal. —INFA
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