Brij Bhardwaj
newsagency12@gmail.com
With dates out, Bihar is set for a battle royale for a very crucial election which may not only decide who would rule Bihar, but also give indications about the outcome of polls to be held in Bengal, Assam, and U.P. Elections in Bihar have always been interesting, with the two major parties, BJP and RJD leading two blocks and having a firm grip on voters. The BJP has the support of upper castes plus some lower castes, while RJD is supported by Yadavs and Muslims.
RJD also has the support of Congress and Left Parties, and BJP on the other hand has the support of United Janata Dal, led by present Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan. The difference between the two blocks is narrow, and Nitish Kumar, who is popularly known as “Paltu Ram”, has become the Chief Minister by aligning with BJP or RJD by switching sides with ease.
This election in Bihar so far has been a bi-polar fight, but this may change due to Pran Kishore, who has been well known as an election strategist and is credited with having been the man behind many victories. He gave up his flourishing business and has been trying to build up a third force to revive Bihar. He has called his effort an attempt to pay back the debt that he owed as a son of the soil and as a Bihari. Serious doubts were expressed about whether he could make any dent in the caste ridden politics of Bihar, but Mr Kishore feels that Bihar is not different from other states and there is a big chunk of voters who are unattached and if he is able to get them plus make a small dent in the vote bank of two blocks he has a chance.
At present both blocks are busy in seat allocation for their allies. The task is not easy as they have to persuade the allies to keep their ambitions under control. To start with, Mr Owaisi, who was keen to join the opposition block, has decided to fight alone as he felt that RJD leaders were arrogant. Now RJD which is keen to fight 134 seats and has to persuade Congress and Left parties to accept fewer seats as compared to the last poll.
BJP is also having problems with Chirag Paswan having agreed to give Janata Dal over 100 seats. Mr Paswan will have to be satisfied with a few seats in the parliamentary constituencies won by him. The electioneering will start once the seat distribution is over in the coming week. So far the leader of the Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, and RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav, have extensively toured the state by undertaking yatras. BJP has organised many meetings of Prime Minister Narerendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah .
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been working hard and has given Rs 10,000 to poor women and unemployed youth in the hope that it will work as it did in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. The opposition, which has talked of jobs for unemployed youth, argues that one time grants will not make any difference as it has come too late and covers only a small section of voters.
BJP has raised the issue of infiltrators while the Opposition is talking of Vote Chori by manipulating the voters list. The Supreme Court, which has been looking into the issue of the latest revision of the voters list, has asked the Election commission to give a list with reasons of all voters whose names have been deleted following revision. This is expected to take care of any manipulation suspected.
The other factors which may influence the outcome of the poll is Modi as he is the choice of Bihar Voters as Prime Minister. Mr Rahul Gandhi’s appeal has improved but he does not match up so far according to recent polls carried out by newspapers. Will Pran Kishore be able to make a dent or remain a poor third? Bihar is one state where voters are very enlightened and have been part of many revolutions.
As such the only prediction that one can make is like last time the gap between two blocks will be narrow. Will Congress do better? Last time it won only 19 seats out of the 70 it contested. Will Nitish do as well as last time because of his indifferent health and frequent crossing over? There is a general feeling that there will be a change of Chief Minister. Meanwhile, Pran Kishore who at one time was being described as B team of BJP has suddenly started attacking BJP leaders in Bihar Cabinet.
The best bet is that it will be a tough fight with every seat keenly contested.
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