Devender Kumar
devenderkumar796@gmail.com
The Chenab Valley, covering the mountainous tracts of Bhaderwah, Kishtwar, Padder and adjoining high-altitude areas are undergoing a profound and unsettling change in its winter character. Traditionally, these landscapes remain buried under thick and persistent snow during the winter months, forming the backbone of the region’s hydrological and ecological stability. In recent years, however, winters have been marked by visibly reduced snowfall and prolonged snow less periods, a phenomenon now widely described as ‘Snow Drought’. Scientific studies across the western Himalayas indicate that snowfall during the last five winters has remained consistently below the long term average recorded between 1980 and 2020. Equally critical is the sharp decline in ‘Snow Persistence’ which refers to how long snow remains on the ground after it falls. Assessments by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) reveal that snow persistence in the Hindu Kush Himalaya has dropped to around 23-24 per cent below normal, the lowest in more than two decades. This means that even the limited snow that does fall melts prematurely, leaving mountains exposed during a season that historically ensured prolonged snow cover.
Snow plays a crucial role in the Chenab basin by acting as a ‘Natural Freshwater Battery’. During winter the snow stores precipitation in solid form at high elevations and releases it gradually through controlled melting during spring and summer. This slow release sustains river flows, recharges springs and aquifers, and ensures water availability during the lean months. Scientific estimates suggest that nearly one fourth of the annual runoff in Himalayan river systems is derived from snowmelt. As winter snowfall declines and rising temperatures accelerate melt, this delicate balance is being disrupted. The Chenab Valley is increasingly witnessing rapid early season runoff followed by reduced and erratic flows later in summer. Such altered hydrological behaviour reduces groundwater recharge, increases soil erosion, and heightens the risk of both short-term flooding and long-term water scarcity. The underlying drivers include warming winter temperatures and weakening western disturbances, the low-pressure systems that traditionally transported snow bearing moisture from the Mediterranean region to Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in more winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow.
The ecological and forest management implications of this shift are already evident across the Chenab Valley. Reduced and inconsistent snow cover deprives forest soils of gradual moisture recharge and removes the insulating layer that protects roots and young plants from extreme cold and desiccating winds. Plantation and afforestation efforts increasingly face poor survival rates, as saplings suffer frost injury, moisture stress, and shortened growing periods. In addition, drier winters and early snowmelt create conditions conducive to forest fires, a growing concern even at elevations where fire risk was historically minimal. Combined with ongoing glacier retreat, declining winter snowfall represents a compounded threat to forest health, biodiversity, water security, and livelihoods dependent on agriculture, pastoralism, and hydropower. What was once considered an occasional climatic anomaly is now emerging as a new normal.
The changing winter regime in the Chenab Valley is no longer a distant climatic concern but an unfolding reality with visible impacts on water resources, forests, and livelihoods. The steady decline in snowfall and snow persistence is eroding the mountain’s natural capacity to store water, weakening the role of snow as a freshwater battery that has sustained the Chenab River system for generations. As snow droughts become more frequent, the valley faces a dual risk of short term hydrological shocks and long term water insecurity, compounded by forest stress, reduced plantation survival, and rising disaster risks such as forest fires and soil erosion.
The evidence from scientific research and field observations sends a clear and urgent message: the traditional relationship between winter, snow, and water in the Chenab Valley is being fundamentally altered. Ignoring these signals would deepen ecological degradation and amplify vulnerabilities for downstream communities. A timely shift towards climate responsive management, integrated watershed planning, and robust snow and water monitoring is essential. By recognizing snow as a critical natural asset and acting decisively to conserve and adapt, the Chenab Valley can still build resilience against a future where winters are warmer, snow is scarcer and water security can no longer be taken for granted.
(The author is SFS Divisional Forest Officer (DFO), Bhaderwah)
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