Harsha Kakar
kakarharsha@gmail.com
US Presidents have always believed they are beyond global institutions and have the power to overthrow regimes they assume act against their interests. In some instances, the CIA does so clandestinely, while in others it is by military intervention. Hardly any of these ended up as successes. Iraq, Libya and Ukraine (Maidan Revolution) are few recent examples. In addition, the US commences war with no end state, determining them with time.
Post launching his strikes on Iran, Trump called on the Iranian people, ‘when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.’ This indicated that the initial intent for Operation Epic Fury was regime change. In Jan, when protests against inflation were peaking, Trump threatened to attack in case Iran carried out executions. Though he did not as the US was unprepared, it is evident that plans for launching the current war emerged then.
Once Epic Fury commenced and Trump realized that regime change may not happen, the end state began to include destruction of Iran’s navy, nuclear and missile sites. Pete Hegseth removed regime change as an intent, while claiming that Iran intended to assassinate Trump. Also realizing that operations may be prolonged, both Trump and Hegseth refused to rule out boots on the ground. In a latest, Trump has sought complete surrender, which may not happen.
There is also the oil factor. Both, Venezuela and Iran own large quantities of oil. Venezuela has the world’s largest reserves and Iran the third largest. Both supply oil to China. Saudis have the second largest reserves and are already aligned to the US. The US has gained control of Venezuelan oil with the removal of Maduro and is hoping to gain control of Iranian oil with either a change in regime or surrender. This will enable it to determine oil prices. It will also impact availability of oil to China, Washington’s main rival.
For nations like India ensuring oil availability at acceptable prices is unlikely to be easy as long as the conflict continues. India had curtailed oil supplies from Russia and shifted towards the gulf and the US avoiding sanctions. The blocking of the Straits of Hormuz would force a change in plan. Currently, over 50% of India’s imports of oil and gas transit through these Straits. The US has lifted sanctions on all nations procuring Russian oil for a month, easing the crisis. However, LNG remains a concern.
The US intent to attack Iran was already known. Talks were only a formality. The first US-Israel strikes killed not only Ayatollah Khamenei but also moderates who could replace him. This was the first set back to US plans. Anyone who is now appointed would need to display far more brutality to remain relevant. Iran has never been concerned about civilian and military casualties, hence subduing the regime would not be easy.
The intent was never Iran’s nuclear power. Iran had enriched Uranium to 60% but agreed to all US terms including surrendering enriched uranium and monitoring by the US and IAEA in the last round of talks. This was confirmed by the negotiators. As an after-thought, post commencement of Operation Epic Fury, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy mentioned ‘The Iranians told us directly, and without shame, that they have 460kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. They were aware they could make 11 nuclear bombs.’ Why this belated announcement? Was it to defend US actions.
In Jun last year Israel attacked Iran while US-Iran talks were in progress. The same was repeated. While the last time, Israel acted independently, this time it was on US bidding.
The reality is that Iran has been punching way above its weight. Its influence over Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and a variety of militias in Iraq has made it a dominant power in the region and has been an irritant to the US and Israel. Its ability to dominate the Straits of Hormuz has added to its power. Decades of sanctions had impacted the country economically but not to the level that it could result in a regime change. For US and Israel, there was a need to force Iran to bend and the only option was to push for a pliable leadership in Tehran.
Global bodies like the UN and major powers like China and Russia have been ineffective in stalling the war. The UNSC, even if it discusses the conflict, can do nothing in the face of a US veto. The UN has failed in stalling every conflict and has proved to be a toothless institution, controlled by a few, passing strictures which are ignored.
The US now has no option but to continue the war despite Iran hitting back at its embassies and bases in the Middle East with drones and missiles. The war has divided NATO forcing the US to threaten its allies with economic actions. It has also split the Middle East. Iran would be alone as its retaliatory strikes have damaged Middle Eastern infrastructure.
The difference in military power is evident. US and Israel possess anti-missile defences and air power, while Iran has missiles and drones. Despite latest technology, Iran has been able to achieve some damage. Iran’s regime has no choice. If it does not fight back, the US would demand surrender and consider members of the regime as war criminals. If it participates in talks with continuation of the regime it would consider it a victory, claiming it has stalled the mightiest power on earth. For the US, it would mean defeat as it happened in Afghanistan. In such a scenario, Israel may have a few years of peace before things go back to where they were.
Considering military power of the US and Israel, Iran will suffer massive casualties as also damages to its infrastructure prior to negotiations commencing. With Gaza already destroyed, Iran likely to follow the same route, funding for reconstruction will be difficult. This would add to anger within, not only against the regime but also the US and Israel. It will complicate any future plans that the US has. No matter who wins, it will be the people of Iran who would suffer and for this no one would take responsibility.
The author is Major General (Retd)
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