Dr. D.K. Giri
The coordinated attack on Iran by USA and Israel is raging on with fire and smoke engulfing the Gulf countries. Along with Ukraine, another ongoing war since 2022, war in Iran will deeply impact the world, certainly the countries in Asia and in the Middle-East. India’s stares at the fallouts of the war with heavy political and economic consequences. As the war continues unabated, at the time of writing, India’s responses need to be analysed and adapted for its own good.
How did the war on Iran start? Was it a function of whims of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said to be a hawkish leader and the American President Donald Trump who is unpredictable and fickle-minded. That is hardly so. War on Iran was in the offing since 1990s after the decimation of Saddam Hussain in Iraq. With the decline of Iraq, which challenges American hegemony in the Middle-East, Iran wore the mantle of resistance to Israel-American axis in the Gulf region.
Furthermore, after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran sought to assume the leadership of the Muslim world. Iran vowed to cripple Israel with thousand cuts and eliminate its existence. Iran did so by sponsoring terrorist activities through Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis. Premised Tehran adopted and advocated was the response to displacement of Palestinians from their legitimate land. Israel illegally occupied Palestine territories and has been progressively divesting the Palestinians of their land, livelihoods and security.
Under these circumstances, Israel realized that its existence was contingent upon dismantling Iran’s current theocratic and cruel regime. Iranians have suffered from authoritarianism and obscurantism of the regime for 47 years. Many observers may say that it is Iran’s internal affair. But a regime that is oppressive violating human rights will tend to be disruptive and diabolic in its external dealings. No one realized it more than Israelis.
America maintained a kind of hegemonic influence in the Middle-East with active support of Israel. As the state of Israel was threatened and wounded by Iran, Donald Trump made it America’s objective to invade Iran to make it compliant with American’s interests. The trigger for the attack was provided by the botched-up negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran had come around the position that it will forgo the idea of making a nuclear bomb but will reserve its right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purpose, which is called PNE – Peaceful Nuclear Energy in disarmament lexicon.
Negotiations on nuclearisation of Iran were still on when Israel and America jointly attacked Iran calling it a preemptive strike. Whether such an attack had international sanction, aligned with International Law is another discussion. For now, we should realize that the rule-based order is given a go bye and international affairs are driven by national interest and unilateral action; be it in Ukraine or in Iran. In Ukraine’s invasion, Russian President called it a ‘Special Military Operation’ and in Iran, USA says it is a preemptive strike. From a normative point of view, both are violations of international law, sovereignty of a country, rule-based world order etc.
Talking of India’s responses, we have to engage in a discussion on imperatives of India’s foreign policy. Over time, with regime changes, the drivers of India’s foreign policy also have changed. I am deliberately referring to response in plural. Because foreign policy has been the government’s domain, it is usually based on a political consensus, but of late, in view of fierce competitive electoral politics, the opposition parties are making loud noise on foreign policy issues while taking on the government. In case of Iran war, the public is also excited, coming on the streets and is engaged in a debate about how India should respond. This is mainly because Iran is an Islamic country although Shia sect, and the supreme leader of the Iran was killed within hours of America-Israel bombarding the country.
Indian Muslims came out in protest against the murder of Ayatollah Khamenei. India had a close relation with Iran, not only in oil imports, but investment in either country, notably Government of India building the ambitious Chahbahar Port as gateway to Central Asia. New Delhi could have remained neutral as always, mourning the death of Khamenei, calling out military strikes, and reiterating the need of diplomacy and dialogue. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi had chosen his side barely 48 hours before the Israel-American aircrafts began bombing Iran.
Remember, Modi had made a stand-alone visit to Israel two days before the attack. During the visit, India-Israel alliance was spelt out in no uncertain terms. One could not call those terms as diplomatic hyperboles. They were real. Netanyahu addressed Modi as brother not just a friend. Modi called Israel the fatherland as India is called a motherland. After such declarations of kinship and affinity, was there any room or scope for GOI to condemn the attack on Iran or officially mourn the death of its supreme leader. After a week or so, the Foreign Secretary went to Iranian embassy in Delhi to sign the register. That is a routine act.
The question is whether responses from India are in its national interest? I will take only that parameter, as talking of ethics and rules is like quoting scriptures to the devil. New Delhi will have to give up certain shibboleths in its foreign policy, like Vasudhaiv Kutumbkam (the world is a family) and an ethical approach to foreign policy and so on. It should focus more on capacity and deterrence, and above all, protection of its national interests. India’s interests lie in staying with the democratic world, the United States, Europe and Israel. Admittedly, Donald Trump’s second term has been a matter of concern for India. But New Delhi can rely on Trump’s propensity for changing his views at any time without any pretext.
On the other hand, those in India crying for Ayatollah Khamenei should remember the cruel persecution of his opponents and suppression of women that his regime unleashed for over 47 years. There are Iranian women shelter in India who share their harrowing experiences. There are multitudes in Iran heaving a sign of relief at the end of such a brutal regime. Iran has just installed Khamenei’s son as the next leader without any popular consent. We have to see how his leadership plays out and how long it lasts.
At any rate, in the name of sovereignty, trampling human rights should be a matter of international concern and solidarity. Whatever be the hidden agenda of Americans, such as controlling the Iranian oil after capturing Venezuela, releasing Iranian control of Strait of Hormuz, choking Chinese oil imports etc., the regime change in Iran should be good for Iranians and their neighbours. New Delhi, finally, has played its cards well in India’s national interest.
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