Anoop Khajuria
anoopkhajuria@gmail.com
The latter half of February and the beginning of March this year have brought an unusual and worrying spike in temperatures across North India. The Himalayan regions-particularly the Kashmir Valley-have witnessed conditions more reminiscent of early spring than the tail end of winter. According to observations by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), several parts of the Kashmir Valley have recorded temperatures significantly above the seasonal average, raising fresh concerns about changing weather patterns in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem.
This abrupt warming not only threatens the region’s snow reserves and winter cropping cycles but also signals broader climatic shifts that could have far-reaching implications for water security and agriculture across the northern plains of India in the months ahead.
This phenomenon has been recurring in recent years and was aptly highlighted at the Conference of Parties (COP 30) held in Belem, Brazil. Climate negotiations at the conference placed strong emphasis on extreme heat, collapsing harvests, and rising health risks-focusing on people and livelihoods, not just the planet. The conference highlighted the growing heat stress across the Indian subcontinent, underlining the urgent need for action as farmers face a narrowing window to sustain their livelihoods, productivity, and wellbeing.
The Indian agriculture sector is already reeling under this heat stress, and scientific assessments clearly underline the challenge. Labour capacity is declining, livestock productivity is falling, perishable produce is spoiling faster, and staple crops are being affected due to rising night temperatures.
Scientific data shows that over the past decade, heatwaves in the Indian subcontinent have become longer, hotter, and more geographically widespread. Southern Indian states are becoming particularly vulnerable, where the combination of heat and humidity is increasingly threatening human survival. States such as Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and coastal Karnataka are emerging as major hotspots.
Heat is now impacting staple foods like wheat and rice with increasing frequency. During the grain maturation stage-particularly in wheat-a sudden rise in temperatures across northern and central India can lead to shrivelled grains and reduced yields. The scorching sun also depletes soil moisture, increasing the cost of irrigation. Milk production has dropped, and farmers increasingly report dehydration, kidney stress, dizziness, and cognitive fatigue-symptoms consistent with chronic heat exposure.
IMD data, both district-wise and state-wise, paints a worrying picture. More than 50 percent of Indian districts now fall into high or very high heat-risk categories. The impact is becoming structural, threatening food security and rural incomes.
An interesting study conducted by the M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) highlights the particular vulnerability of women farm workers, especially in southern India. Women agricultural workers often work longer hours in the open and perform physically demanding tasks such as transplanting, weeding, and harvesting.
As temperatures rise, women farm workers are suffering physically, nutritionally, and economically. Increasing heat reduces the number of safe working days, thereby deepening existing inequalities. Nearly 85 percent of India’s farmers are small landholders, making them among the most exposed and least protected groups.
Many farmers have begun shifting their work to early mornings or late evenings to cope with the heat. However, the loss of productive daytime hours affects overall output, increases safety risks, and places additional strain on households.
COP 30 also raised an important concern: many adaptation tools already exist but are either not being adopted or are being implemented too slowly. Farmers are experimenting with heat-resilient crop varieties, mulching, adjusting sowing calendars, and conserving soil moisture. When local knowledge is combined with scientific advisories, crop losses can be significantly reduced.
Moreover, heat is largely predictable. Impact-based early warnings and timely advisories can help farmers protect crops from heat stress.
Unlike the 2022 heatwave scenario, agricultural universities such as Punjab Agricultural University (PAU), Ludhiana, and SKUAST have issued early advisories to farmers this time. When early warning leads to early action, losses can be minimized.
Some states have already begun taking proactive steps. For instance, Tamil Nadu has introduced parametric insurance to address climate risks. Climate finance must move beyond post-disaster relief and instead support anticipatory and people-centred resilience strategies.
India now faces a significant responsibility following COP 30, which recognised heatwave risks as a major global concern. These commitments must be translated into a coordinated national response. Heat-risk management should be integrated into national agricultural planning. Early warning systems must be robust and should trigger automatic responses such as irrigation advisories, livestock protection measures, work-rest protocols, and insurance activation.
Data will be key to this transition. The country needs a comprehensive heat-health surveillance system for rural and informal workers to better understand and address the growing risks posed by extreme heat.
(The writer is a Senior Consultant with DD Kisan Channel.)
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